Resolve Riffs Investment Podcast

Aahan Menon: Systematic Macro in a Shifting Economy: Signals Over Stories

Mike and Richard are joined by Aahan Menon of Prometheus Macro for a discussion on systematic macro investing. Aahan begins by challenging the utility of long-term macro forecasts, arguing they are largely ineffective for improving portfolio performance and advocating for shorter trading horizons. He then details his investment framework, which involves dynamically tilting portfolio exposure between carry, trend, and mean reversion based on evolving macroeconomic circumstances. The conversation also explores a curious and significant divergence currently observed between labor market data and broader economic output. Topics Discussed • The philosophy of providing macro research for free while charging for portfolio implementation • A critique of long-term macro forecasting's ineffectiveness for improving portfolio returns • An investment framework based on the three core factors of carry, trend, and mean reversion • Dynamically tilting between core factors based on evolving macroeconomic conditions and signal strength • Integrating fundamental data as a diversifying signal within the carry, trend, and reversion framework • Aggregating bottom-up signals from individual assets to form a macro view, rather than imposing a top-down narrative • The use of a crisis protection program combining long volatility with positive carry assets like TIPS and gold • Skepticism towards common liquidity measures and a preference for financial conditions indices • The importance of adapting models to structural economic shifts, such as the move to a services-based economy • An underappreciated divergence between strong economic output and a weakening labor marke

Mike Green: The Affordability Crisis & Rethinking the American Dream

In this episode, Adam Butler is joined by guest Mike Green to discuss his viral Substack articles on the American affordability crisis. The conversation explores the significant gap between official economic statistics, like CPI, and the lived financial reality for the middle class, a phenomenon Green argues is often dismissed by an expert "mockery machine." They also discuss the use of LLMs in his research process and debate potential policy solutions to address widespread economic precarity. Topics Discussed • The use of Large Language Models (LLMs) as productivity tools for research and writing. • A critique of the "mockery machine" in public discourse that dismisses legitimate concerns about the cost of living • The disconnect between formal economic definitions of inflation and the public's lived experience of unaffordability • The concept of a "precarity line" for a modern family versus the technical definition of a poverty line • The economic pressures leading to "ghost households," where young people forgo having children due to high costs • Flaws in economic metrics like the CPI, particularly how quality adjustments mask the true rise in essential costs • The societal gaslighting by the economic establishment and its political consequences. • The "Valley of Death" or benefits cliff, where withdrawing government support creates a barrier to entering the middle class • Debating policy solutions like tariffs, direct government investment, and incentive-based programs to address economic precarity

Wes Gray: Optimizing for After-Tax Returns

On this episode, Adam Butler is joined by Wes Gray for a deep dive into advanced tax-efficient investing strategies. The discussion explores the mechanics of Section 351 contributions for creating tax-deferred ETFs, a powerful tool for investors with already diversified portfolios. They contrast this approach with solutions for managing highly concentrated stock positions, such as exchange funds and market neutral tax loss harvesting, and also touch on the use of box spreads for optimizing collateral. Topics Discussed • Section 351 contributions as a method for converting diversified portfolios into an ETF wrapper tax-free • Utilizing exchange funds as a solution for concentrated stock positions, which involves a seven-year lockup period • Employing market neutral long/short strategies to systematically harvest tax losses and reduce concentrated positions over time • The mechanics of tax loss harvesting, where market beta typically generates losses in the short book, squeezing the tax basis into the long leg • The core concept of the "physics of tax," where tax liability is deferred or shifted rather than eliminated • Using concentrated equity positions as collateral to fund overlay strategies, an application of capital efficiency and Return Stacking • The use of box spreads on SPX options to generate cash-equivalent returns with more favorable 60/40 capital gains tax treatment instead of ordinary income • The growing demand and innovation in tax optimization solutions for high-net-worth investors • Integrating tax management engines within investment funds to offset tax liabilities from primary trading strategies like managed futures

Convexity Maven Harley Bassman: How To Survive The Next Rate Cycle

In this episode, Adam Butler is joined by Harley Bassman, Managing Partner at Simplify Asset Management, for a wide-ranging discussion on interest rate volatility, portfolio construction, and public policy. Bassman explains his creation of the MOVE Index before diving into strategies using long-dated options to create asymmetric payoffs. They also explore the systematic risks that challenge diversified portfolios during Fed policy inflection points. The conversation concludes with Bassman's strong case against the re-privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, detailing the potential negative consequences for the housing market. Topics Discussed • The creation and mechanics of the MOVE Index as a VIX for the bond market • Explaining complex financial derivatives by drawing analogies to fundamental physics concepts • Constructing highly asymmetric, long-term trades based on the shape of the yield curve • The failure of traditional diversification during major inflection points in Federal Reserve policy • The paradigm shift to passive investing flows overriding traditional market valuation metrics • A new trade idea involving a positive-carry call option on Treasury rates as a recession hedge • The evolution of portfolio tools like Return Stacking and derivative-based ETFs • Identifying U.S. immigration policy as the most significant and overlooked macroeconomic risk • The public policy argument against the re-privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Managed Futures-Why Now! Positioning, Energy, De-Dollarization, and Portfolio Blind Spots

In this episode, Rodrigo Gordillo, Mike Philbrick, and Adam Butler explore the timely relevance of managed futures, examining why the current macroeconomic environment may be particularly favorable for these strategies. They discuss recent drawdowns, the uncorrelated nature of trend and carry strategies, and the importance of diversification. The conversation also covers the benefits of strategic overlaying in portfolios, the impact of policy shocks, and the potential for managed futures to add value in various market conditions, including inflationary periods. Topics Discussed • The recent, challenging drawdown period for both trend and carry managed futures strategies • Behavioral hurdles of investing in strategies that hit new highs infrequently, leading to investor fatigue • The strong macro case for diversification due to concentrated U.S. equity portfolios and potential inflation • The physical resource demand from the AI boom creating potential trends in commodities and energy • The role of managed futures in capturing global trends beyond commodities, including international equities and currencies • The argument that the fundamental drivers for trend and carry remain intact despite recent performance • Utilizing Return Stacking to reduce tracking error and make it easier to hold diversifiers long-term