Small Dog Trading

Episode 2: Your Queen Is in Another Castle: Can AI Beat the Prediction Market Final Boss?

Key Topics Covered: • The Grammy Strategy: How Andrew used Kalshi’s liquidity rewards to find "soft" markets and why his LLM-based super-forecasting model fell short. • AI vs. The Market: Identifying the "Base Rate" trap. We discuss why AI is excellent for information synthesis but struggles with quantitative price discovery in liquid markets like the Fed Funds Rate or Bitcoin.• The "Final Boss" Problem: Why you should stay away from "tourist markets" like weather and temperature unless you’re ready to trade against professional meteorologists. • Market Mechanics & Quirks: A breakdown of the Fed Chair nomination, the OPM government shutdown controversy, and the "parent company" loophole in Super Bowl advertising markets. • Prediction Markets as Insurance: Are these platforms just for "sports gambling," or can they evolve into legitimate tools for risk transfer and institutional hedging? • Unpaid shill of the week: Not an advertisement, just us shilling stuff we like Gaeten episode on Predictive Programming: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RssQwPbgF7M Rags 2 Riches Rag by Audionautix is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Artist: http://audionautix.com/

Episode 1: From Trading Pits and Screens to School Drop-Off

Andrew spent 15 years as a professional trader at SIG before walking away to become a house dad. Now he's back - trading prediction markets from his kitchen table. In this episode: * Why he wouldn't want to work for a company where "nobody gets fired here" * The cognitive biases SIG's training beat out of him * Why prediction market prices aren't "the truth" - and why that's actually the point