Blain's Morning Porridge

Après Starmer, le rain-shower…?

“The king is dead. Long live the King.” Poor old Sir Keir Starmer. Wrong man in the wrong job. So much hope now squandered. But its important not to over-think or over-worry what comes next. In Gilts there is truth and the 10-year yield is still south of 5%. Andy Burnham needs to prove himself a leader and demonstrate ideas and action. Is that too much to ask?  There is little surprise that Sir Keir Starmer is now expected to resign - setting in motion a transfer of the UK premiership to Andy Burnham, the former Manchester mayor who won his way back into the Houses of Parliament last week. Starmer’s exit is being painted as proof that political instability is now built into the current UK political system - triggering a wall of worry among the commentariat about the Gilts Market and Sterling – what will the markets think of the seventh Premier in 16 years? Will the threat of increased borrowing and spending plans trigger market wobbles? And, how sustainable will the new government be? You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

G7, Brexit, Europe, Markets and Defence!

“After all, we’re all on the same team… aren’t we?” What is the point of the G7 meetings? The issues are clear: growth, defence, security and future threats – like the developing El-Nino. Instead, the leaders dance around the Orange Man, ignoring the fragmentation around them. If we are going to put Europe on track, we have to identify the problems and address them at root. Capital Markets and Defence are examples of where it’s gone wrong – and we have solutions! What were they really thinking about at the G7 Meeting? For some leaders it may have been a blessed relief to get away from mounting domestic political pressures. For others an opportunity for a brief spell in the reflected sunlight of the event – smiling as they demonstrated they had a seat at, or adjacent to, the table. (Adjacent – word of the decade – it means SFA.) For most their biggest fear would have been the challenge of dealing with Donald Trump. But it was an older, orange-er, heavier looking Trump who grumped over the event. He may be telling everyone he was the boss and he got what he wanted from Iran… but the most dangerous 4 words in politics are “doesn’t he look tired.” You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Margaret Thatcher’s wailing ghost stalks the land!

“I am extraordinarily patient, provided I get my own way in the end.” The Russians are deliberately provoking the UK in the English Channel – seeking to demonstrate that “Broken Britain” lacks the will, the resources and resilience to rebuild itself. The imminent Nationalisation of failing water utility Thames Water highlights how decisions made decades ago have had consequences that are costing the nation dear today.  Before getting into the main story on the Morning Porridge – the latest in the sorry tale of Thames Water - let me write about yesterday’s brazen intimidation of a British Yacht, the Bright Future, in foggy conditions in the English Channel yesterday. Regular readers will know I am a passionate sailor, and I’ve crossed the Channel many times in daylight, at night, in storms and in periods of calm, including foggy days. The fact there is practically nothing the UK can do to stop UK shipping being harassed by the Russians in our home waters is a consequence of the many years of neglect of our Armed Forces by successive governments. It’s another lesson in the consequences of bad policy and poor decisions. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Boom before the Reality Sinks In

“Sometimes I’ve believed six impossible things before breakfast” Stock Markets partied higher yesterday, utterly unbothered by the optics of the Iran Deal. Bond markets look at the long-term risks – wondering what the consequences of the Iran war might trigger in the coming years when today’s new bonds are set to repay. Traders will be trying to figure out what a new world will look like, and just how sustainable US Bonds markets might be as the global economy shifts. I think I have used the classic Alice in Wonderland (actually, it’s from Through the Looking Glass) quote more times than any other over the nearly 20 years I’ve been writing the Porridge. It feels kind of apt this morning. Yesterday Global Stock markets hit record levels, rallying on the back of the Iran deal. However, we all know (even though many aren’t prepared to accept it as the actuality) that the deal represents a definitional defeat of the USA by Global Terrorist Central - Iran. Don’t take my word for it – read the editorial in the New York Times: President Trump Lost This War [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/15/opinion/-trump-lost-war-iran.html]. Iran won an asymmetric war versus the strongest Military Nation on Earth – knowing Trump would not put the boots on the ground that would be needed to win it. There are lots of lessons the Chinese, Russians and NATO will be absorbing. Resilience is the new watchword. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

AI Shut-downs, and the Iran Peace Deal – what does it all mean?

“Tonight, there’s going to be a jailbreak… don’t you be around…” There were a number of “Moments” over the Weekend. A Peace Deal in the Gulf was inevitable – but we will see energy supply chains slowly normalise and lower inflationary expectations. Equally important is the US Government switching off Anthropic’s most powerful AI models. Collectively, these two events could have enormous consequences in terms of global power and hegemony. Cage Fighting on the White House lawn seems the perfect metaphor for our times. Scotland beating Haiti at 4 am on Sunday morning at the World Cup was probably less significant, but very, very satisfying. That was a busy weekend. The peace deal between the USA and Iran is a fascinating lesson of the consequences of unconstrained power. The fact the US Government effectively turned off Anthropic’s Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models was a pivotal event – and could impact the coming AI IPOs, the global adoption of US AI models, the future path of AI, and the ongoing exceptionalism of the US Tech Sector. Let’s start with AI. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!