Coinbase Institutional Market Call

This week we dive into market dynamics that led to crypto’s strong price action on the week. The team walks through flows, derivative markets, and meme coin thematics. We also spend time with Merlin Egalite, co-founder @ Morpho Labs to walk through Merlin’s vision of DeFi lending, Coinbase’s crypto backed loan product, and Morpho v2. Speakers: Joshua Pak, Senior CES Sales Trader David Duong, Global Head of Research Merlin Egalite, Co-founder of Morpho Labs

This week, we’re diving into the accelerating convergence of traditional finance and crypto, headlined by the groundbreaking news that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are considering accepting crypto as valid assets for mortgage applications. This, combined with Circle’s recent application for a U.S. bank charter, signals a major shift in how digital assets are integrated into the core financial system.The macro landscape is dominated by the Federal Reserve, as we analyze recent comments on stablecoins from Chair Powell and explore the crucial discussion around his potential replacements and what their policy stances could mean for crypto’s future. We also provide updates on the “One Big Beautiful Bill” and the looming July 9th tariff deadline, all ahead of this week’s key Non-Farm Payrolls report on Thursday.We then turn to corporate strategy, where new crypto treasury products are launching from Bitmine Immersion Tech and TAO Synergies. In fundraising, we focus on the explosion in prediction markets, highlighted by massive  funding rounds for Polymarket at a $1 billion valuation and Kalshi at a $2 billion valuation.Finally, we have a slate of major updates from Coinbase. The exchange has secured its full MiCA license in Europe, a milestone that unlocks access to all 27 EU member states. For U.S. traders, perpetual-style futures are set to launch on July 21st, and in Australia, Coinbase has integrated PayPal as a new payment method. Topics Covered: * Macro & Policy Deep Dive: * Powell’s recent stablecoin commentary. * The debate over potential Fed chair replacements and their crypto impact. * Updates on the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” Iran, and the July 9th tariff deadline. * U.S. rates outlook. * TradFi & Crypto Convergence: * Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac considering crypto for mortgage applications. * Circle’s application for a U.S. bank charter. * New crypto treasury strategies driven by FASB accounting changes. * Tokenized equities launching on Arbitrum. * Fundarising: * The boom in prediction markets: Polymarket ($1B valuation) & Kalshi ($2B valuation) secure massive funding. * Coinbase: Global Expansion & Product Innovation: * Securing a landmark MiCA licence for the entire 27-member European Union. * Upcoming launch of perpetual-style futures in the U.S. (July 21st). * Integration of PayPal as a payment method in Australia. * Upcoming Catalysts: * Non-Farm Payrolls report on Thursday (July 3rd) due to the holiday.

This week, we explore BTC's turbulent price movements amid a volatile geopolitical backdrop. The team dives into an analysis of price performance for crypto equity-linked assets, developments in stablecoins, and partnerships between credit card issuers and crypto-native applications. Zaid from the Prime Financing team provides insights into significant trends in the crypto lending market. Concluding the discussion, David outlines the macro expectations for the week, while the team examines the notable surge in Polymarket activity.

This week, we analyze a market sending mixed signals. While ETF flows for both BTC and ETH remain positive and perp funding rates are healthy, the COIN50 Index is down 5.2% on the week. This raises the question: are global markets accurately pricing risk, especially with low volatility in traditional markets (VIX <20) and a slate of major catalysts on the horizon? On the macro front, it’s a packed week for central banks with key interest rate decisions coming from the Fed, Norges, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank. We’ll discuss how the market is recalibrating towards only one Fed rate cut this year and what to watch for in the latest jobless claims, consumer confidence, and housing starts data. We also look ahead to the upcoming July 9th tariff pause deadline and the US/UK trade deal. We then dive into the dual nature of the corporate treasury strategy. While more companies are announcing allocations to BTC, SOL, and ETH, we examine the implications of the $7 billion debt cliff due for major holders in late 2029 and early 2030, and how increased competition may encourage innovative and potentially risky practices. The main event today is the expected Senate vote on the GENIUS Act, a pivotal moment for stablecoin legislation in the US. This comes as Circle’s stock approaches all-time highs and DeFi tokens like AAVE, UNI, and SKY are trading well. We’ll explore the value of ETH in this landscape, supported by the massive growth of onchain real-world assets ($24B) and stablecoins ($238B). Finally, we cover a series of major announcements from Coinbase that highlight real-world adoption. This includes the groundbreaking partnership with Shopify to bring USDC payments via Base to millions of merchants, the launch of the new Coinbase One Card with up to 4% bitcoin back, the all-in-one Coinbase Business platform, and insights from the latest “State of Crypto” report, which firmly places stablecoins at the center of the future of money. Topics Covered: * Market Update: * Positive BTC & ETH ETF Flows vs. a -5.2% COIN50 Index. * Healthy Perp Funding Rates (BTC 7.4%, ETH 9.1%). * Risk assessment: VIX vs. BTC Volatility and Gold correlation. * Global Macro: * Central Bank Decisions: Fed, Norges, SNB, Bank of England. * Shifting Fed expectations to a single 2025 rate cut. * US Economic Data: Jobless claims, consumer confidence, housing starts. * Trade & Tariffs: July 9th deadline and US/UK deal talks. * Corporate Treasury Strategy: * Continued adoption of BTC, SOL, and ETH by public companies. * The risk may be further out based on the 2029/2030 corporate debt maturities. * Ethereum & Stablecoin Thesis: * The GENIUS Act: US Senate vote expected today. * Market Movers: Circle, AAVE, UNI, and SKY performance. * Ecosystem Growth: Real-world assets ($24B) and stablecoins ($238B). * Coinbase News * Partnership with Shopify for USDC payments on Base [https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/blog/coinbase-and-shopify-bring-usdc-payments-on-base-to-millions-of-merchants-worldwide]. * New Coinbase One Card with 4% bitcoin back [https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/blog/earn-up-to-4-percent-bitcoin-back-on-every-purchase-with-the-new-coinbase-one-card]. * Launch of the Coinbase Business platform [https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/blog/introducing-coinbase-business-the-all-in-one-financial-platform-for-modern-companies]. * Key takeaways from the "State of Crypto" report [https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/blog/the-state-of-crypto-the-future-of-money-is-here].

This week, we're tracking Ethereum's continued ascent, which has now seen an incredible 14 consecutive days of ETF inflows. Bullish sentiment is reflected across the board with both ETH and BTC basis trading above 10%, while Bitcoin's market dominance holds strong at 65.45%. We'll also dive into the recent strength in DeFi tokens like UNI, AAVE, and SKY following favorable comments from former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins, and what this signals for the sector's future.The macro landscape is packed with catalysts. We're monitoring US/China trade talks as the July 9th tariff pause deadline approaches, the progress of the "Big Beautiful Bill" through the House, and a critical week for economic data with US CPI and PPI releases. Markets will also be watching the U.S. 30-year bond auction on Thursday for signals on the economy. The main event this week is our stablecoin focus, with the US Senate reportedly set for a vote on the GENIUS stablecoin bill this Wednesday. We'll explore what's next if it passes and the broader industry momentum, including Circle's IPO, Plasma's $500M raise, and reports of major companies like Apple, X, and Airbnb exploring stablecoin payments.We then turn to corporate crypto adoption, discussing a new Standard Chartered report showing 61 public companies now hold 3.2% of Bitcoin's total supply, and how the market is thinking about the risks associated with these growing treasury strategies. We'll also touch on key Bitcoin Core development around transaction relay policy and what it means for the network's future.In the NFT space, Yuga Labs continues to narrow its focus by sunsetting its DAO to launch APE Co.Finally, in Coinbase news: a new report indicates 60% of Fortune 500 firms are working on blockchain initiatives, Prime has advanced its ETH staking capabilities, the "State of Crypto" event is this Thursday and we share a consumer protection PSA. Topics Covered: * Market Dynamics: * Ethereum's 14-day ETF inflow streak and price ascent. * High ETH & BTC basis (>10%) and BTC Dominance (65.45%). * DeFi token strength (UNI, AAVE, SKY) following Paul Atkins' comments. * Macro & US Policy: * US/China trade talks & July 9th tariff deadline. * Progress of the "Big Beautiful Bill." * Key Economic Data: US CPI, PPI, and the 30-year bond auction. * Stablecoin Deep Dive: * Upcoming US Senate vote on the GENIUS stablecoin bill. * Industry fundraising: Circle IPO, Plasma $500m raise, Noah. * Corporate exploration of stablecoin payments (Apple, X, Airbnb). * Corporate Adoption & Bitcoin Core: * Standard Chartered report: 61 public companies hold 3.2% of BTC. * Risks and strategies for corporate crypto treasuries. * Bitcoin Core development on transaction relay policy. * NFT Ecosystem: * Yuga Labs sunsets DAO to launch APE Co. * Coinbase News: * Report: 60% of Fortune 500 working on blockchain [https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/blog/the-state-of-crypto-the-future-of-money-is-here]. * Product: Advanced ETH staking capabilities on Prime. * "State of Crypto" on June 12th [https://x.com/coinbase/status/1932097619892769269]. * A consumer protection PSA [https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/blog/consumer-protection-tuesday-check-your-email-headers]. * Our latest ad - Who’s got the “Price of Housing in Bitcoin” chart [https://x.com/coinbase/status/1931403399041519869]?