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Not only do we have a new pope this week, but we also have the first deal in Trump’s global trade war, this time between the UK and the US. Trump’s enthusiastic announcement, complete with a lot of CAPITAL LETTERS, helped inflate sentiment, making this US-UK deal feel bigger than it actually is. Still, the news of the US-UK deal resonated positively across global financial markets and all eyes are on the first in-person meeting between US and Chinese high-level officials in Geneva tomorrow to discuss tariffs. Further de-escalation could boost equities and the US dollar further and pull gold and Swiss franc lower. In energy, the week ends on a better note than it started. US crude is back at the $60pb level after an early-week plunge to $55 on news that OPEC would accelerate plans to restore output — for reasons that remain unclear. Listen to find out more!

This week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting went according to plan. It was hawkish—though just about as hawkish as expected. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as widely anticipated, and signalled it's in no rush to cut them before gathering more data to assess the real impact of the tariff policy. It believes tariffs could lead to higher inflation and higher unemployment. And even though the spike in inflation is expected to be temporary, there’s a chance it could linger. The US 2-year yield rebounded after the decision, the probability of a June cut eased to 20%, and US equities came under pressure. But the headlines shifted quickly: news that the Trump administration would scrap the AI chip curbs engineered by Biden gave a late boost to major indices in the final half-hour of trading. Nvidia—flat for most of the session—rallied over 3% in the last 30 minutes. And the US and the UK are expected to announce a trade deal today! Listen to find out more!

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The futures are in the positive this morning on news that the trade talks between the US and China could lead to progress, as the Chinese Premier will reportedly meet US Treasury Secretary Bessent later this week to discuss tariffs. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) freshly lowered its policy rate and reserve ratio today in an effort to strengthen its monetary support for the Chinese economy, which is seeing a slowdown in activity. As such, the CSI 300 is better bid this morning – the index is back to April 2nd levels, when Trump blew the world’s mind with his unreasonable tariff levels – while the Hang Seng jumped above its 50-DMA, though gains remained fragile and were mostly given back by the time of writing. The US dollar is slightly positive this morning, as the selloff against Asian currencies cools. Good news from the Chinese front could bring back hopes and risk appetite. The latter would result in a recovery in the US dollar and a further rebound in equities as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is preparing to announce no change to its rates today. Listen to find out more!

The week kicked off on a bearish note for US equities as the buying that had been driven by hopes of a turnaround in trade winds over the past nine sessions is gently losing momentum. In FX, the US dollar remains softer across the board; its rapid selloff against Asian peers was particularly in focus over the past two sessions and raised concerns about the dollar’s status as a safe haven and reserve currency. The Federal Reserve (Fed) starts its two-day meeting with no expected change to its policy this week, while earnings are not looing bad but forecasts are souring sentiment. From here, the lack of good news on the trade front will likely discourage bulls from extending the latest rally. Yet, I firmly believe that optimistic investors are positioning to catch the moment when potential tariff deals pop and trigger a rebound—they just don’t want to miss the rally by coming in too late. That mindset could help limit losses if the suspense doesn’t last long and trade deals really materialize. Listen to find out more!