The Long View

Hi, and welcome to The Long View. I’m Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar. Today on the podcast, we welcome back author and blogger JL Collins. JL’s first book, The Simple Path to Wealth: Your road map to financial independence and a rich, free life, was published in 2016 and has since sold more than 1 million copies. He has recently come out with a second edition of the book, which his daughter, Jess, collaborated on. In 2023, he published another book called Pathfinders: Extraordinary Stories of People Like You on the Quest for Financial Independence. BACKGROUND Bio [https://jlcollinsnh.com/about/] The Simple Path to Wealth (Revised & Expanded 2025 Edition): Your Road Map to Financial Independence and a Rich, Free Life [https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DQJMVM59/ref=sspa_dk_detail_0?psc=1&pd_rd_i=B0DQJMVM59&pd_rd_w=ztyAu&content-id=amzn1.sym.8c2f9165-8e93-42a1-8313-73d3809141a2&pf_rd_p=8c2f9165-8e93-42a1-8313-73d3809141a2&pf_rd_r=C8SS7ST7EX78R8P6FF50&pd_rd_wg=DPas2&pd_rd_r=0e1f9697-d5d5-40a6-a909-8a79825f4d41&s=books&sp_csd=d2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9kZXRhaWw] Pathfinders: Extraordinary Stories of People Like You on the Quest for Financial Independence—And How to Join Them [https://www.amazon.com/Pathfinders-Extraordinary-Stories-Financial-Independence_And/dp/180409000X?crid=YS20KG2EQ26P&keywords=pathfinders+jl+collins&qid=1699277858&sprefix=pathfinders%2Caps%2C102&sr=8-1&linkCode=li3&tag=jlcollinsnh-20&linkId=adaa3502402fe7ec8a91ff148b96cbb6&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_il] THE SIMPLE PATH TO WEALTH, 4% RULE, INFLATION, AND STOCKS “Case Study #1: Putting the Simple Path to Wealth Into Action [https://jlcollinsnh.com/2012/09/17/putting-the-simple-path-to-wealth-into-action/],” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, July 10, 2023. “Things Important, and Unimportant [https://jlcollinsnh.com/2023/02/28/things-important-and-unimportant/],” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, March 1, 2023. “Stocks—Part XIII: The 4% Rule, Withdrawal Rates and How Much Can I Spend Anyway? [https://jlcollinsnh.com/2012/12/07/stocks-part-xiii-withdrawal-rates-how-much-can-i-spend-anyway/]” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, Oct. 15, 2023. “Déjà Vu All Over Again, [https://jlcollinsnh.com/2025/04/07/deja-vu-all-over-again/]” by JL Collins, jlcollinshh.com, April 18, 2025. “Stocks—Part IV: The Big Ugly Event, Deflation and a Bit on Inflation [https://jlcollinsnh.com/2012/04/29/stocks-part-iv-the-big-ugly-event/],” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, Nov. 16, 2023. “Stocks—Part XXII: Stepping Away From REITs [https://jlcollinsnh.com/2014/05/27/stocks-part-xxii-stepping-away-from-reits/],” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, May 12, 2025. “Stocks—Part XXVII: Why I Don’t Like Dollar Cost Averaging [https://jlcollinsnh.com/2014/11/12/stocks-part-xxvii-why-i-dont-like-dollar-cost-averaging/],” by JL Collins, jlcollinshn.com, Jan. 8, 2024. “Stocks—Part III: Most People Lose Money in the Market [https://jlcollinsnh.com/2012/04/25/stocks-part-iii-most-people-lose-money-in-the-market/],” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, Nov. 16, 2023. “Time Machine and the Future Returns for Stocks [https://jlcollinsnh.com/2017/07/26/time-machine-and-the-future-returns-for-stocks/],” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, July 10, 2023. DEBT PAYDOWN “Chainsaws and Credit Cards [https://jlcollinsnh.com/2021/08/30/chainsaws-and-credit-cards/],” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, March 30, 2023. “Stocks—Part XXVIII: Debt – The Unacceptable Burden [https://jlcollinsnh.com/2015/03/26/stocks-part-xxviii-debt-the-unacceptable-burden/],” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, May 12, 2025. OTHER “JL Collins: The Case for Simplicity [https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/8e4f37b9-ef54-4817-8143-5d09634ecd98],” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, April 5, 2022. “JL Collins: Spotlighting the Many Paths to Financial Independence [https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/c784ee7a-c079-41d4-8e0f-ddb8b5c0cb93],” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Oct. 31, 2023. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index VTSAX [https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vtsax/quote] Bill Bengen [https://www.linkedin.com/in/william-bengen-21b159196/] Mr. Money Mustache [https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/]

Hi, and welcome to The Long View. I’m Dan Lefkovitz, strategist for Morningstar Indexes. Our guest this week is Arunma Oteh, currently of the University of Oxford Saïd Business School. Arunma is a former treasurer of the World Bank and also served in various leadership roles in the African Development Bank. In 2010, she became Director General of Nigeria Securities and Exchange Commission, and she led that apex regulator for several years following the global financial crisis. She writes about the experience in the recently published book All Hands on Deck: Unleash Prosperity Through World Class Capital Markets. Arunma is a graduate of the University of Nigeria, UNN Nsukka, and Harvard Business School. BACKGROUND Bio [https://www.linkedin.com/in/arunma-oteh/?originalSubdomain=uk] All Hands on Deck: Unleash Prosperity Through World Class Capital Markets [https://www.arunmaoteh.com/index.php/book/] NIGERIA’S “IRON LADY” “Nigeria’s Iron Lady Takes on Fraudsters [https://www.bbc.com/news/10464725],” by Caroline Duffield, bbc.com, July 1, 2010. “Changing the World One Bond at a Time [https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2018/07/18/changing-the-world-one-bond-at-a-time],” Rita Stankeviciute and Kathleen Manahan, worldbank.org, July 18, 2018. “Nigeria SEC Boss, Arunma Oteh, Fights Back [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfIVO9A7_U8],” YouTube video, March 15, 2012. OTHER Securities and Exchange Commission, Nigeria [https://sec.gov.ng/] Nigerian Exchange Group NGX [https://ngxgroup.com/] FMDQ Group [https://fmdqgroup.com/] “A Tale of 2 Exchanges: As FMDQ Thrives NGX Plays Catch Up [https://moneycentral.com.ng/exclusive/article/a-tale-of-2-exchanges-as-fmdq-thrives-ngx-plays-catch-up/],” by Bala Augie, moneycentral.com, Oct. 2, 2021.

Hi, and welcome to The Long View. I’m Dan Lefkovitz, strategist for Morningstar Indexes. Our guest this week is Daniel Rasmussen. He’s the founder and portfolio manager of Verdad Advisers, a hedge fund. Before starting Verdad, Dan worked at Bain Capital Private Equity and Bridgewater Associates. He’s a member of the investment committee of the trustees of donations of the Episcopal Church and he’s a contributor to The Wall Street Journal. Dan is author of the new book, The Humble Investor: How to find a winning edge in a surprising world. His earlier book was American Uprising: The Untold Story of America’s Largest Slave Revolt. Dan holds a bachelor’s from Harvard and an MBA from Stanford. Dan, thanks so much for joining us on The Long View. BACKGROUND Bio [https://verdadcap.com/dan-rasmussen] Verdad [https://verdadcap.com/#strategies] The Humble Investor: How to find a winning edge in a surprising world [https://harriman.house/books/the-humble-investor/] American Uprising: The Untold Story of America’s Largest Slave Revolt [https://www.harpercollins.com/products/american-uprising-daniel-rasmussen?variant=32206399963170] FORECASTING “Waves in Ship Prices and Investment [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/272368975_Waves_in_Ship_Prices_and_Investment],” by Sam Hanson and Robin Greenwood, Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 2014. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction [https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136696], by Philip Tetlock “Gaining Edge by Forecasting Volatility and Correlations [https://verdadcap.com/archive/beyond-risk-parity],” by Dan Rasmussen, Chris Satterthwaite, and Lionel Smoler Schatz, verdadcap.com, Oct. 30, 2023. VALUE INVESTING “Where the Value Investing Strategy Still Works [https://www.ft.com/content/57d0b9e8-540b-4c03-bfb4-11882cb1f4c0?shareType=nongift],” by Dan Rasmussen, ft.com, May 23, 2024. “Factors from Scratch: A Look Back, and Forward, at How, When and Why Factors Work [https://osam.com/Commentary/factors-from-scratch],” by Chris Meredith, Jesse Livermore, and Patrick O’Shaughnessy, osam.com, May 2018. “The Size Factor: Small Caps Are Trading at the Steepest Discount to Large Caps in Decades [https://verdadcap.com/archive/the-size-factor],” by Dan Rasmussen and Brian Chingono, verdadcap.com, Aug. 22, 2022. “The Small Cap Amplifier [https://verdadcap.com/archive/the-small-cap-amplifier],” by Dan Rasmussen and Brian Chingono, verdadcap.com, Oct. 21, 2024. “Explaining International Valuations [https://verdadcap.com/archive/explaining-international-valuations],” by Dan Rasmussen, verdadcap.com, Jan. 27, 2025. PRIVATE CREDIT AND HIGH YIELD “The ‘Fool’s Yield’ of Private Credit [https://www.ft.com/content/aad10b03-9f28-4ff0-98e9-ebe7985b9eb2],” by Jamie Powell, ft.com, Jan. 28, 2020. “Sizing Private Equity Allocations [https://verdadcap.com/archive/sizing-pe-allocations],” by Dan Rasmussen, verdadcap.com, May 13, 2024. “The Best Macro Indicator: Why You Should Be Following High-Yield Spreads [https://verdadcap.com/archive/the-best-macro-indicator],” by Dan Rasmussen, verdadcap.com, May 17, 2021. CRISIS INVESTING “Crisis Investing in Europe: The Unlikely Winners in the Most Difficult Times [https://verdadcap.com/archive/crisis-investing-in-europe],” by Dan Rasmussen and Brian Chingono, verdadcap.com, May 16, 2022. “EM Crisis Investing, A Deeper Dive: Understanding the Factors at Play in Emerging Markets [https://verdadcap.com/archive/em-crisis-investing-a-deeper-dive],” by Verdad Research, verdadcap.com, May 3, 2022.

Our guest on the podcast today is David Booth. He’s the Chairman of Dimensional Fund Advisors, a firm he founded in 1981. David led Dimensional as CEO and later Co-CEO until 2017, when he stepped back from the daily management of the firm. David helped create one of the world’s first index funds in the 1970s and launched the first passively managed small-company strategy in the early 1980s. He received a bachelor’s degree in economics in 1968 and a master’s degree in business in 1969 from the University of Kansas. In 1971, he received an MBA from the University of Chicago. Over the years, David has been a benefactor to both schools, and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business is named in David’s honor. David, welcome to The Long View. BACKGROUND Bio [https://www.dimensional.com/hk-en/bios/david-booth] Tune Out the Noise [https://www.dimensional.com/film] DFA US Small Cap [https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/dfstx/quote] DFA US Micro Cap [https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/dfscx/quote] PAPERS MENTIONED “Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation: Year-by-Year Historical Returns (1926-1974) [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/24102582_Stocks_Bonds_Bills_and_Inflation_Year-by-Year_Historical_Returns_1926-1974],” by Roger Ibbotson and Rex Siquefield, The Journal of Business, January 1976. “The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns [https://www.jstor.org/stable/2329112],” by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French, jstor.org, June 1992. “Why Investors Missed Out on 15% of Total Fund Returns [https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/fund-investors-who-kept-it-simple-captured-more-return],” by Jeffrey Ptak, Morningstar.com, Aug. 15, 2024. OTHER Errol Morris [https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0001554/] Merton Miller [https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1990/miller/facts/] Eugene Fama [https://www.chicagobooth.edu/faculty/directory/f/eugene-f-fama] Mac McQuown [https://www.chicagobooth.edu/research/fama-miller/who-we-are/john-mcquown] Rex Sinquefield [https://www.linkedin.com/in/rexsinquefield/] Robert Merton [https://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/robert-c-merton] Dan Wheeler [https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/insights/remembering-dan-wheeler] Daniel Kahneman [https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2002/kahneman/biographical/] “Everything You Need to Know About ‘MADOFF: The Monster of Wall Street,’ [https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/madoff-the-monster-of-wall-street-release-date-cast-news]” by Ingrid Ostby, netflix.com, Jan. 4, 2023. “DFA vs. Vanguard [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVKimoQkLAg],” The Rational Reminder podcast, Episode 351, youtube.com. “PHOTOS: A Look Inside the Booth Estate [https://www.statesman.com/picture-gallery/news/2020/02/13/photos-a-look-inside-the/66617433007/],” Austin American-Statesman, Feb. 13, 2020.

Today on the podcast we welcome back Cullen Roche. Cullen is the founder and chief investment officer of the Discipline Funds, which manages the Discipline Fund ETF. In addition, he heads up Orcam Group, a registered investment advisory firm he established in 2012. He’s authored several books, including Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance, and he has a new book coming out next year called Your Perfect Portfolio. Cullen started his career as an advisor at Merrill Lynch and worked at an event-driven hedge fund before starting his RIA firm. He received his bachelor’s degree in finance from Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business. Cullen, welcome back to The Long View. BACKGROUND Bio [https://www.linkedin.com/in/cullenroche/] Discipline Funds [https://www.morningstar.com/asset-management-companies/discipline-funds-BN00000N2B] Discipline Fund ETF [https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/bats/dscf/quote] Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance [https://www.amazon.com/Pragmatic-Capitalism-Every-Investor-Finance/dp/1137279311] Your Perfect Portfolio [https://www.panmacmillan.com/authors/cullen-roche/your-perfect-portfolio/9781804091920] TARIFFS AND RECESSION “Let’s Talk About Tariffs [https://disciplinefunds.com/2025/02/03/lets-talk-about-tariffs/],” by Cullen Roche, disciplinefunds.com, Feb. 3, 2025. “Weekend Reading—How Did We Get Here? [https://disciplinefunds.com/2025/04/04/weekend-reading-how-did-we-get-here/]” by Cullen Roche, disciplinefunds.com, April 4, 2025. “Three Things—Tariffs, Of Course [https://disciplinefunds.com/2025/04/07/three-things-tariffs-of-course/],” by Cullen Roche, disciplinefunds.com, April 7, 2025. “American Economic Association 2021-2022 Universal Academic Questionnaire Summary Statistics [https://www.jstor.org/stable/27174475],” by Charles E. Scott and John J. Siegfried, jstor.org. “Three Things—Is a Recession Coming? [https://disciplinefunds.com/2025/02/28/three-things-is-a-recession-coming/]” by Cullen Roche, disciplinefunds.com, Feb. 8, 2025. DEFINED DURATION INVESTING “What Is Defined Duration Investing? [https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/02/21/what-is-all-duration-investing/]” by Cullen Roche, disciplinefunds.com, Feb. 21, 2023. “Defined Duration Investing [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4185202#:~:text=This%20%E2%80%9CDefined%20Duration%E2%80%9D%20approach%20enhances,more%20predictable%20financial%20planning%20process.],” by Cullen Roche, paper.ssrn.com, Aug. 8, 2022. THE FED AND GLOBAL INVESTING “Three Things—State of the Markets [https://disciplinefunds.com/2025/02/22/three-things-state-of-the-markets/],” by Cullen Roche, disciplinefunds.com, Feb. 22, 2025. “Why Is International Investing Working Again? [https://disciplinefunds.com/2025/03/26/why-is-international-investing-working-again/]” by Cullen Roche, disciplinefunds.com, March 26, 2025. “Three Things—Weekend Reading [https://disciplinefunds.com/2025/04/19/three-things-weekend-reading-15/],” by Cullen Roche, disciplinefunds.com, April 19, 2025. OTHER “Cullen Roche: Macro Is About Understanding the World for What It Is [https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/8b39ee33-b426-4b0c-94dc-3e7b5e5864bb],” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Jan. 11, 2022. Milton Friedman [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Friedman] “NY Empire State Index: Meaning, Benefits, Example [https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nyempirestateindex.asp],” by Adam Hayes, Investopedia.com, June 30, 2022. William Bernstein’s No-Brainer Portfolio [https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/no-brainer-portfolio/] Meb Faber [https://mebfaber.com/about/] The Humble Investor [https://www.linkedin.com/posts/rasmussen16_the-humble-investor-is-out-today-activity-7292517459360661505-l2Jz/], by Dan Rasmussen