It All Happened Before

Episode 13: We've Seen the Story Turn with Dr. Karabekir Akkoyunlu

As we explore the various forms of authoritarianism around the world these days, it can feel like there's no end in sight. That's why this week, we wanted to look for something else: a case that might offer some hope, albeit cautiously. We turn to Brazil, and to Dr. Karabekir Akkoyunlu [https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.karabekir.net/__;!!K-Hz7m0Vt54!k-UpdBFC8FtomnR7imKsMPMbZr-V9sTbO7hhq1f_vmEMOpRCDp8ClVKUKYoXKXNwwSyeLeHbtQG5-yZ4o6fV$], a comparative politics scholar working across Turkey, Iran, Brazil, and Indonesia. He walks us through the last decade of Brazilian politics: Lula's imprisonment ahead of the 2018 election, Bolsonaro's rise as a Trump-idolizing celebrity-populist, his COVID-era collapse, Lula's return, and, for the first time in Brazil's history, the conviction of a former president and a slate of generals for attempting a coup. We also dig into the difference between "redemocratization" with a capital R — an actual regime transition — and the small-r version Brazil is living through now: a swing within the same system, a respite rather than a fresh start, with Bolsonaro's base intact and his son waiting in the wings for 2026. From there we move on to the "rainbow coalition" strategy — Lula's exceptional skill at building alliances that cut across the polarizing lines an autocratizing leader depends on, a strategy Péter Magyar has echoed in Hungary — and the much harder problem of keeping that coalition together once the election is won. We close our conversation with what two decades on Turkey and Iran look like from Brazil: the same fight for a dignified life shows up everywhere, but the circumstances and thresholds differ. Things can get worse. They can also get better. Dr. Karabekir Akkoyunlu's books: * Guardianship and Democracy in Iran and Turkey: Tutelary Consolidation, Popular Contestation (2024) — https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-guardianship-and-democracy-in-iran-and-turkey.html [https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-guardianship-and-democracy-in-iran-and-turkey.html] * Contesting Autocratisation: Actors and Institutions of Democratic Resistance in a Global Perspective (2026), edited by Bilge Yabanci, Karabekir Akkoyunlu, Kerem Öktem — https://www.routledge.com/Contesting-Autocratisation-Actors-and-Institutions-of-Democratic-Resistance-in-a-Global-Perspective/Yabanci-Akkoyunlu-Oktem/p/book/9781041198864 [https://www.routledge.com/Contesting-Autocratisation-Actors-and-Institutions-of-Democratic-Resistance-in-a-Global-Perspective/Yabanci-Akkoyunlu-Oktem/p/book/9781041198864] Subscribe to our companion newsletter: itallhappenedbefore.substack.com [http://itallhappenedbefore.substack.com]

Episode 12: We've Been Walking Around Obstacles with Dr. Maria Repnikova

When we talk about resistance, we tend to picture it: marchers in the street, dissidents with megaphones, confrontation made visible. But in societies where activists are monitored, journalists are constrained, and the costs of speaking out are real and immediate, resistance looks different. It learns to walk around obstacles rather than through them. It becomes quieter, more adaptive, harder to name. To think through what that means — and what our usual frameworks miss — we turn to Dr. Maria Repnikova [https://www.mariarepnikova.com/], a scholar of Chinese political communication. We move across a lot of terrain in this conversation: the lived experiences of journalists and activists who find ways to work around obstacles rather than through them, nonconfrontational activism as strategy and as survival, the blurry line between resistance and complicity, and what "participatory persuasion" reveals about who's really in control of a narrative. We also draw comparisons between China and Russia — where the constraints look similar on the surface but the logic underneath is different. And we ask why soft power is no longer a distinctly Western or liberal-democratic project. What emerges is something we keep coming back to: the importance of image — for autocratic states, for democratic ones, and for all of us trying to make sense of a global information order that keeps shifting. It All Happened Before began as a way of seeing our future in other countries' pasts and presents — primarily through Turkey. This season and next, we keep widening that lens. We started with Turkey. The world keeps giving us more to think with. ---------------------------------------- Dr. Maria Repnikova's books: * Media Politics in China: Improvising Power under Authoritarianism (2017) — https://www.amazon.com/Media-Politics-China-Improvising-Authoritarianism/dp/1107195985 [https://www.amazon.com/Media-Politics-China-Improvising-Authoritarianism/dp/1107195985] * Chinese Soft Power (2022)— https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/chinese-soft-power/4E9C9E445C5F8A9F81F5AAEEAD2DF21D [https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/chinese-soft-power/4E9C9E445C5F8A9F81F5AAEEAD2DF21D] * Competing for Softpower: China's Image Making in Africa (forthcoming July 2026): https://www.amazon.com/Competing-Soft-Power-Chinas-Making/dp/100971029X [https://www.amazon.com/Competing-Soft-Power-Chinas-Making/dp/100971029X] Read more and subscribe: https://itallhappenedbefore.substack.com [https://itallhappenedbefore.substack.com]

Episode 11: A Neighborhood in the Age of Authoritarianism: A Conversation with Author Suzy Hansen

Suzy Hansen's first book, Notes on a Foreign Country: An American Abroad in a Post-American World, is one of the books we kept returning to in the conversations that eventually became this podcast. Her account of seeing the United States from the outside — and her reckoning with American exceptionalism helped us name what we were trying to do here: think about the U.S. with Turkey in the frame, and refuse the comfort of believing it can't happen here. So when listeners and friends started asking us to invite her, it felt overdue. Suzy Hansen joins us to talk about her new book, From Life Itself: Turkey, Istanbul and a Neighborhood in the Age of Erdoğan (April 2026) [https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780374298432/fromlifeitself/] — a decade-long portrait of Karagümrük and the people who live there. Where Notes asked what it means to be American once you've left America, From Life Itself asks a different question: how do ordinary people experience authoritarianism in the twenty-first century? What does it feel like when the world transforms around you while you're trying to live your life, raise your kids, run your shop, get through the week? We talk about what it means to write authoritarianism from inside a single neighborhood in Istanbul rather than from the height of the strongman narrative — the muhtar, the corner shop, the slow accumulation of small adjustments that become a new normal. We sit with the systemic violence directed at Roma and Syrian communities in the neighborhood, and what it means that everyday ambivalence at street level coexists so easily with institutional disposability. And we keep returning to her argument that authoritarianism is "an act of creation, a process of transformation that begins when few are watching and, once identified, is often too late to stop." We end where the show always ends up — looking back and forth between Turkey and the U.S. right now: at the immigration regime and ICE, at the disposability of certain communities, at the textures of life under a transformation that's already well underway, and at what Turkey's last decade can tell Americans who are still asking whether this is really happening. About Suzy Hansen Suzy Hansen is the author of From Life Itself: Turkey, Istanbul and a Neighborhood in the Age of Erdoğan [https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780374298432/fromlifeitself/] (2026). She lived for more than a decade in Istanbul as a contributing writer for The New York Times Magazine. Her first book, Notes on a Foreign Country: An American Abroad in a Post-American World [https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780374537838/notesonaforeigncountry/], was a finalist for the 2018 Pulitzer Prize in nonfiction and won the Overseas Press Club's Cornelius Ryan Award. She has taught writing at Princeton, NYU, and Bard, and has been a fellow at New America and the Institute of Current World Affairs. She lives in New York City. Subscribe to our companion newsletter: itallhappenedbefore.substack.com [http://itallhappenedbefore.substack.com]

Episode 10: We've Watched Journalists Become Content Creators with Journalist Gulsin Harman

When mainstream media gets captured, the story doesn't end — it migrates. In Turkey, journalism moved from legacy newspapers and TV channels to scrappy independent websites, then to YouTube, and now to individual creator channels where the line between reporter and personality has all but dissolved. This week, Istanbul-based journalist Gülsin Harman joins us to map that journey from the inside. Gülsin has worked within Turkish and global mainstream media — she contributes to the New York Times and BBC Monitoring — and has spent the last several years researching and advising the independent outlets that emerged in capture's wake. So she thinks about not just whether independent journalism survives, but how it stays solvent. We get into the questions that keep independent media awake at night: Which business models are actually working, and which are quietly failing? What does it mean when mid-career journalists like Nevşin Mengü leave CNN Türk to become "newsfluencers" on YouTube — when reporting, opinion, and creator culture fuse into something new — and how does that reshape public debate when your trusted news source is also someone you follow? We also compare notes with the US, where the same migration is underway. And because digital media isn't immune to capture either, we talk about how Turkey's independent journalists have learned to recognize economic and political pressure in its newer forms and survive it. Plus a detour into Hasan Piker's growing streaming empire — fitting, since this episode runs nearly as long as one of his Twitch sessions. Our Guest: Gülsin Harman is an Istanbul-based journalist contributing to the New York Times and BBC Monitoring's Turkey coverage, an editorial strategy consultant for independent media, a 2020 Nieman Foundation Fellow at Harvard, and a member of the News Product Alliance and the Society for News Design. Subscribe to our companion newsletter: itallhappenedbefore.substack.com [http://itallhappenedbefore.substack.com]

Episode 9: We've Been Frustrated with the Opposition Party Before with Dr. Aytuğ Şaşmaz

The Democratic Party is trying to figure out what will work — and the competing forces within it are doing so loudly. In Maine, an oyster farmer and Marine veteran named Graham Platner pushed a sitting Democratic governor out of the Senate primary. In Michigan, physician Abdul El-Sayed is running neck-and-neck with the party-preferred pick. In California, eight Democrats are splitting the field so thoroughly that two Republicans may take both top-two slots. Same frustration underneath: in fighting and vision contests. If you've watched Turkish politics for the last two decades, you've lived this frustration. Erdoğan's AKP has held power since 2002, in part because the main opposition — the CHP — kept losing with candidates its own base was lukewarm about. Voters showed up. They lost. They showed up again. In Episode 9, we talk with Dr. Aytuğ Şaşmaz [https://aytugsasmaz.com/], Assistant Professor of Political Science at Bryn Mawr College. Aytuğ's central concept is the valence deficit — the gap between a party's values and voters' belief that it can govern competently. The mechanism is internal: when parties lose cohesion, they nominate factional loyalists instead of capable candidates. We talk through what changed between the CHP's 2023 alliance loss and its 2024 historic win — 35 of 81 provinces, the AKP's first national defeat in two decades. And we sit with the harder part: six months later, the regime arrested İmamoğlu. Aytuğ reads the arrest not as a refutation of the strategy but as confirmation that it was working. Then we push on the comparison. Where does the CHP framework map onto the Democrats? Where does it break? We've been frustrated with the opposition party before. The question is what frustrated voters did with it — and how any of that travels. Subscribe to our Substack: itallhappenedbefore.substack.com [http://itallhappenedbefore.substack.com] Further reading: Aytuğ's piece in Medyascope [https://medyascope.tv/2023/07/02/aytug-sasmaz-yazdi-kilicdaroglunun-liderligi-chp-orgutunde-donusumu-nasil-etkiledi/] on how Kılıçdaroğlu's leadership transformed the CHP organization (in Turkish).