Saxo Market Call

Dip bought as Jensen Huang joins Trump in China. Also: oil, gold and wheat.

Today, a rundown of the market largely springing quickly back from a vicious semi-conductor sell-off ahead of critical potential incoming news as Jensen Huang is set to join Trump in Beijing as we await the outcome of the Trump-Xi summit. Is a deal afoot on semis and more? Also, Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen on the outlook for oil, interesting signs of precious metals resilience given the backdrop, what is driving the big pop in wheat prices and more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links * George (not Thomas) Friedmann talks geopolitical situation [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbIzlVHpm1g], particularly Russia, US-China summit. * Bloomberg exclusive on China's massive hidden debt piles [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-12/china-s-3-trillion-of-hidden-bad-debt-prolongs-economic-pain?srnd=homepage-americas]. * A brief and brutal assessment of why the UK can't get its economy back to the way it used to be [https://x.com/AscendedYield/status/2054305601233023107], because things simply aren't the way they used to be. * A hedge fund manager on why he steers clear of tech stocks [https://pracap.com/why-i-avoid-tech/]. About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/]. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Korean politician pops the chip vibe. Sterling under pressure.

Today - a Korean politician sparked enormous volatility in the key chip names there on suggesting the idea of a "citizens' dividend" to be extracted from the companies' enormous profits. It's an important test of the chip space after the recent parabolic run-up in key names. Also, the lack of progress in the US and Iran re-opening the Hormuz Strait has the US dollar pushing higher on higher oil prices ahead of the US April CPI release. Elsewhere, sterling is under mounting pressure from political uncertainty as Gilts also suffer. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.   About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/]. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Trump-Xi summit an historical moment. Also, an exquisitely timed IPO on deck.

Today, a look at the massive further ramping in the hottest AI-adjacent hardware names on Friday, although it was a former SaaS victim that rallied hardest in an ironic twist. Elsewhere, we note one of the more exquisitely timed AI-related IPOs set for this Thursday, while we await the historical moment of this week's Trump-Xi summit and the titanic stakes. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Today's links: * Been reading Chokepoints [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chokepoints] as I have previously noted - a critical book for understanding the leverage that economic (and financial) chokepoints provide, and an important work in light of the heavily intertwined US and Chinese economies. * An excellent Deutsche research piece on the "return of history" as gold is set to become a potentially dominant presence in global central bank reserves [https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/IE-PROD/PDFVIEWER.calias?pdfViewerPdfUrl=PROD0000000000625515&rwnode=REPORT]. * And as noted, the Back Mechanic [https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/63221240-back-mechanic], a book kindly recommended to me by a podcast listener on getting your back in shape and avoiding the kind of trauma I am currently suffering with a herniated disk.   About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/]. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Some relief in software. Eyes on Trump-Xi next week.

Today, a look at US market performance behaving very differently yesterday as some software names got a big boost on an otherwise negative day, in part on DataDog's earnings result. Also, an interesting geopolitical signal comes out of Greenland, while there is plenty to talk about in macro and FX even if FX volatility remains restrained, waiting for US jobs data and next week's critical Trump-Xi summit. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's show: The Goldman Sachs research report on "Tracking the Trillions" in AI spending [https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/tracking-trillions-the-assumptions-shaping-scale-of-the-ai-build-out%20] - very thorough look at many of the issues in understanding the risks in the assumptions about chip lifespan and much more. An X post that looks at how the massive cap-ex spend on AI will drive S&P 500 earnings projections through next year [https://x.com/i/status/2050551188496515254%20], even if balance sheets are less robust on the other side. Craig Tindale's massive work on how we are looking at climate change risks in the wrong way [https://ctindale.substack.com/p/a-castle-lookout-doesnt-wait-for?r=orbm&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true], with risks of ugly feedback loops in key systems that could accelerate change in ways the generalist models aren't.   About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/]. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Chip madness getting close to FOMO mania phase?

Here is today's John J. Hardy substack post. [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/p/chip-madness-getting-close-to-fomo] Today, a look at the latest run-up in semiconductor names, especially after AMD reported earnings yesterday after the close and whether this almost parabolic action in the SOX index is some kind of mania phase in this market. Also, a look at the latest in macro and FX, as Japan's Ministry of Finance seems to be out showing its determination once again to strengthen the yen. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/] (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.