Tepp Talks: A podcast with David Tepp

How Far Can Optimism Stretch Valuations? What Investors Should Know

By most metrics, the U.S. stock market is exorbitantly expensive. The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio remains well above historical averages, and valuations in the technology sector are stretching into territory that makes even seasoned investors anxious. And yet, many buyers remain fully committed. This leaves investors and analysts arguing over whether current prices are justified by earnings expectations or whether the market is pricing in a level of perfection that is rarely delivered. By David Tepp, 'Forbes Councils Member' for Forbes Finance Council Published October 21, 2025

TrumpBessenomics: The First-Semester Report Card

Now that we are six months into the second Trump administration, it is worth revisiting the economic philosophy that I refer to as “TrumpBessenomics.” The term captures the fusion of Donald Trump’s populist, growth-oriented agenda with the strategic and data-driven approach of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. While it is too early to evaluate the effectiveness of "TrumpBessenomics", what follows is a targeted assessment of actual policy execution and economic outcomes so far, focused on four key areas: growth and markets, fiscal policy, trade strategy, and institutional integrity. By David Tepp Published in Advisor Perspectives August 12, 2025 Sources: * https://www.wsj.com/opinion/bessents-3-3-3-economic-growth-plan-and-the-5-4-3-threat-treasury-secretary-nominee-387250a8 [https://www.wsj.com/opinion/bessents-3-3-3-economic-growth-plan-and-the-5-4-3-threat-treasury-secretary-nominee-387250a8] * Oxford Economics, “Q2 GDP Rebound Masks Glowing Fundamentals,” written by Bernard Yaros, July 30, 2025 * BCA Research, “One Big Beautiful Basket,” written by Max Malakveitshouk, July 16, 2025 * https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/30/politics/doge-musk-government-savings [https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/30/politics/doge-musk-government-savings] * JP Morgan Chase, “Guide to the Markets,” July 31, 2025 * Oxford Economics, “Made in America – The Manufacturing Sectors With the Best Prospects,” written by Nico Palesch, July 22, 2025 * Oxford Economics, “PCE Nowcast – Tariffs Are Starting to Hit Inflation,” written by Grace Zwemmer, July 16, 2025 * Oxford Economics, “ICE Arrests Proving a Hinderance to Labor Force Growth,” written by Matthew Martin, August 4, 2025

The Tangible Side of a Digital World: Don't Overlook the Inputs

In an age when investors obsess over quarterly earnings, AI hype, and the Federal Reserve, it’s easy to overlook what actually makes the global economy tick: the inputs that power, build, and sustain growth. By David Tepp Published in Advisor Perspectives October 13, 2025 Sources: * Absolute Strategy Return, “From Weaponised Trade to Weaponised Capital:, written by Ian Harnett, April 3, 2025 * Absolute Strategy Return, “Controversies, Convictions & Context #4”, written by Ian Harnett and David Bowers, May 8, 2025 * Absolute Strategy Return, “Water, Food & Climate: The New Security Imperative”, written by Michael Penn, May 30, 2025 * Absolute Strategy Return, “The Critical Metal Catalysts”, written by Michael Hessel, July 4, 2025 * Absolute Strategy Return, “Energy Transition: Myths & Realities”, written by Michael Penn, July 22, 2025 * Absolute Strategy Return, “Real Asset Revival”, written by Zahra Ward-Murphy, August 8, 2025 * Alpine Macro, “Future Water Security Hinges on Innovation”, written by Noah Ramos, November 20, 2024 * Alpine Macro, “Adapting Commodity Strategy to Shifting Correlation Dynamics, written by Kelly Xu, August 5, 2025 * Alpine Macro, “AI, Energy, And the Grid – A Collision Course”, written by Noah Ramos, August 6, 2025 * Rosenberg Research, “Making Uncertainty Great Again: Take Three”, written by David Rosenberg, September 2025 * Oxford Economics, “ICE Arrests Proving a Hinderance to Labor Force Growth”, written by Matthew Martin, August 4, 2025 * Oxford Economics, “The Young and the Anxious”, written by Ryan Sweet, March 26, 2025

Tepp Wealth Management 2ndQ 2026 Quarterly Outlook

Our first quarter outlook described 2026 as a story of steady growth in the first half, with the potential for inflation to re-emerge later in the year as fiscal stimulus, deregulation, and improving business conditions combined to reignite demand. The Iran conflict, which began on February 28th with coordinated US and Israeli strikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, compressed and scrambled that sequence. SOURCES * - Absolute Strategy Research, “Asset Allocation: Reduce Risk as Iran War Extends,” Zahra Ward-Murphy, March 18, 2026 * - Absolute Strategy Research, “Six Big Investment Issues from Our Global Marketing,” March 25, 2026 * - Absolute Strategy Research, “The High-Flation Regime & Bonds,” written by Ebrahim Rahbari, April 1, 2026 * - Alpine Macro, “Tropic Thunder: War Time Equity Positioning,” Nick Giorgi, April 1, 2026 * - Alpine Macro, “In Brief: Iran — Winner, Winner, TACO Dinner?,” Dan Alamariu, April 1, 2026 * - BCA Research, “Quarterly TAA: Anatomy of a Supply Shock,” Juan Correa, Lucas Laskey et al., April 1, 2026 * - BCA Research, “Geopolitical Strategy: The Shortest Geopolitical Outlook for Q2 2026,” Matt Gertken et al., April 3, 2026 * - GeoFutures, “Sketches of the Middle East After the Iran War”, written by Kamran Bokhari, April 2, 2026 * - Numera Analytics, “Global Asset Allocation: The Fog of War — Should Investors Buy the Dip?,” Joaquin Kritz Lara et al., March 17, 2026 * - Numera Analytics, “US Asset Allocation,” Joaquin Kritz Lara et al., March 19, 2026 * - Oxford Economics, “GAA Equities: US Equities Can Weather the Oil Shock,” Daniel Grosvenor, March 16, 2026 * - Oxford Economics / Alpine Macro, “GAA Cross Asset: Move Closer to Benchmark as We Dial Back Risk,” Ainsworth-Grace, Corominas & Grosvenor, March 12, 2026 * - Oxford Economics / Alpine Macro, “GAA Fixed Income: Central Banks Will Need to Lean Against the Wind,” Javier Corominas, March 13, 2026

Quantum Computing: Swapping Traffic Lanes for Jetpacks

The leap from traditional computing to quantum computing is a revolutionary economic event. Quantum computing could alter productivity, industrial structure, capital allocation, and even the balance of global power. The transformation won’t happen overnight, but investors who wait for proof may find they have waited too long. By David Tepp  Published in Advisor Perspectives January 12, 2026 Sources Alpine Macro, “Opportunities in the Quantum Ecosystem”, written by Noah Ramos, November 12, 2025 Alpine Macro, “The Dawn of Quantum Utility”, written by Noah Ramos, March 5, 2025 Alpine Macro, “The Quantum Landscape: Accelerating Disruption”, written by Noah Ramos, October 30, 2024 Deloitte Insights, “Quantum Computing Over the Next Five Years”, written by Deloitte Insights Contributers, May 2025 Financial Times, “Google and IMB Believe First Workable Quantum Computer is in Sight”, written by Richard Waters, August 12, 2025 Financial Times, “The World Should Prepare for the Looming Quantum Era, written by the Editorial Board, August 21, 2025 McKinsey Digital, “Quantum Technology Monitor”, written by McKinsey Technology Council, McKinsey & Co, June 2025 Wall Street Journal, “Trump Administration in Talks to Take Equity States in Quantum Computing Firms”, written by Amrith Ramkumar, October 23, 2025