CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast

May 2026 SW Climate Podcast - Super? Mega? Weird: El Niño & Monsoon

Recorded 05/15/2026, Aired 05/19/2026 In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins answer what a strong El Niño could mean for the monsoon.  They do a quick recap of the first half of May.  And then it’s off to the races with a look at: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, ONI vs. RONI, ENSO’s scientific history, monsoon and its interaction with East Pacific tropical activity, then finally a winter preview.  Should be a fun and interesting few seasons to watch unfold! Also, Zack gives a plug for the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game [https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/home] which will include a new weekly tournament feature this year. Mentions NOAA CPC - ENSO Strength Probabilities [https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths/]   Tropical Tidbits [https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/]   WebberWeather [https://x.com/webberweather]   NOAA CPC - Outlooks [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/]   Google - Weather Lab: Cyclones [https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab]    Paper “North American Monsoon Response to Antecedent Soil Moisture and Snow in the Colorado Plateau” [https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024JD043026]   Paper “Tropical Ocean Contributions to California’s Surprisingly Dry El Niño of 2015/16” [https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/24/jcli-d-17-0177.1.xml]

April 2026 SW Climate Podcast - Mind-blowing March Meltdown

Recorded 04/03/2026, Aired 04/07/2026 Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins go full coroner in this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast and do an autopsy of the record-setting March heat wave.  Expect fluid dynamics, conservation of angular momentum, and level of divergence type of nerding for this deep dive. They go over the heat impacts to snowpack and forecasted streamflow, and the end of month precipitation event which looked monsoonal.  Lastly there is some excitement for the upcoming super El Niño that’s brewing.  Stick around on this long-ish one for a full explainer on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation - at the 1:02:43 mark.    Mentions: Climate Perspectives - Western Region [https://sercc.oasis.unc.edu/Map.php?region=wrcc] Paper: “Synthesis of Publications on the Anomalous June 2021 Heat Wave in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada” [https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/106/6/BAMS-D-24-0188.1.xml] USDA - NRCS: Snowpack & Streamflow [https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/] RainLog [https://rainlog.org/] NOAA - CPC: El Niño Southern Oscillation [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml] NOAA - NCEI: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) [https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/]

March 2026 SW Climate Podcast - What’s Your Favorite Month?

Recorded 03/03/2026, Aired 03/04/2026   In this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins rank their favorite months of the year - and June gets no love.  They recap February’s weather which was high and dry but not much else.  There’s a discussion on ENSO with a deep dive into a couple related papers of note.  And with the end of meteorological winter they cover the bleak snowpack conditions in the west. Towards the end there is a look into the models to see what is on the horizon - including for the monsoon.  Stick around for an announcement on the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game with a lot of new exciting features - you won’t want to miss!     Mentions:  NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Discussion [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml] Paper: “Southern Hemisphere Surface Warming Drives Southwestern U.S. Precipitation according to AI-Informed Climate Model Simulations” [https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/38/24/JCLI-D-25-0176.1.xml] Paper: “Anthropogenic Intensification of Cool-Season Precipitation Is Not Yet Detectable Across the Western United States” [https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023JD040537] USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service: NWCC Interactive Map [https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/] NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Season Forecasts [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/] National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/] International Multi-Model Ensemble  [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/c3s/]

January 2026 SW Climate Podcast - Weather’s Been Weird

Recorded 01/30/2026, Aired 02/02/2026   Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are kicking off 2026 with a look at this winter’s weird weather in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast.  They do a recap of the last couple of months of precip and temps.  They do a review of large scale climate patterns - Madden–Julian Oscillation, Greenland Block - and get into a deep discussion about the Polar Vortex.  They cover the not-so-great coverage of snowpack and look at the forecasts through peak season going forward.  Rounding out the episode is the NOAA announcement on RONI (a topic of past episodes [https://climas.arizona.edu/podcast/december-2024-sw-climate-podcast-relatively-speaking]) and a preview of the AI focused episode that is in the works.    Mentions: Paper: Arctic sea ice decline and continental cold anomalies: Upstream and downstream effects of Greenland blocking [https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL072387] Paper: What Is the Polar Vortex and How Does It Influence Weather? [https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/98/1/bams-d-15-00212.1.xml] * Figure 2 [https://climas.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2026-02/full-bams-d-15-00212.1-f2-1.jpg] * Figure 1 [https://climas.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2026-02/full-bams-d-15-00212.1-f1-1.jpg] Article: Stratospheric Warming Confirmed: Polar Vortex Collapse to Bring Major Weather Disruption in the Coming Weeks [https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-collapse-february-2026-stratospheric-warming-forecast-winter-united-states-canada-europe-fa/] Article: February forecast calls for more polar vortex mayhem [https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2026/01/31/february-2026-forecast-cold-polar-vortex/88378657007/] Article: Snow Drought in the West Reaches Record Levels [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/science/snow-drought-climate-change-west.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share] NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Forecasts [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/] NOAA NWS - Public Information Statement: Implementing a Relative Oceanic Niño Index effective February 1, 2026 [https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/pns26-05_Relative_ONI.pdf] NOAA NWS - Information Circular: Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) [https://climas.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2026-02/RONI-Flyer-2026.pdf] Paper: Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Teleconnections from the 2023–24 El Niño Offset by Background SST Trends [https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/39/1/JCLI-D-25-0227.1.xml]

December 2025 SW Climate Podcast - We’ve Been Ridged

Recorded 12/19/2025, Aired 12/22/2025 In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast episode, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are feeling good about the warmer than normal December temps.  They start out with a look at recent conditions, including the persistent ridge keeping us dry this month.  This leads to a review of a paper on the Heat Dome of 2023 - and what all this warmth means for snowpack in the west.  They give their End of Year review of heat, fire and precipitation in 2025.  Rounding out the episode is a telling of each of their picks for the Climate Story of the Year for the Southwest.   Mentions: Climate Anomaly Maps and Tables [https://wrcc.dri.edu/anom/ari_anom.html] Paper: “The longest-lasting 2023 western North American heat wave was fueled by the record-warm Atlantic Ocean” [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-61859-y] USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service - Snowpack Map [https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/] Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries [https://cales.arizona.edu/climate/misc/stations/index.html] SWCC: Southwest Year-To-Date Wildland Fire Activity [https://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/predictive/intelligence/daily/YTD/YTD_WildlandFireActivity.htm] Webinar: Globe/Miami Flooding Event of September 2025: Weather and Climate Overview [https://extension.arizona.edu/events/globemiami-flooding-event-september-2025-weather-and-climate-overview] NOAA NWS: Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/] NOAA NWS: North American Multi-Model Ensemble [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/] International Multi-Model Ensemble [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/c3s/]