Bayesian Supercycle

Predictive Accuracy Is Not Driven by Insiders

I was honored to speak at this Elastics [http://elastics.ai] event at CV Labs Zug. My talk is about 10 minutes, but you can watch Adhi Rajaprabhakaran and Noah Zingler-Sternig speak at the same event in the full recording [https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1yGBeMoARRoKN]. Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe [https://supercycle.blog/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

John Aristotle Philips on Atomic Bombs, the CFTC, and the Value of Information

Featuring John Aristotle Philips [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Aristotle_Phillips]. Our best episode yet! We discuss the value and ethics of democratizing information, how PredictIt got their no action letter, where the prediction market industry is going, and (as always) if futarchy could solve nuclear war. Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe [https://supercycle.blog/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Manifold: Death Markets, Manipulation, Shenanigans

Featuring Quroe [http://manifold.markets/Quroe], jim [http://manifold.markets/jim], and Mary Smith [http://manifold.markets/MarySmith]. Our strangest podcast. As a suspected AI joins in the middle of the meeting, we quickly decipher that this is, in fact, a real human using a voice filter. Nevertheless, we had some discussions about insurance using protocols such as Augur and how every prediction market is a bounty subject to manipulation. Episode #3 of The Supercycle podcast. Later this week we’ll be analyzing public comments on the CFTC’s proposed rule-changes, and next week we’ll be airing an episode with Michael Fischer of Endpoint Arena, the first prediction market for clinical trial outcomes. Eli will be attending a prediction market meetup in Zug, Switzerland, on May 15 courtesy of Elastics [http://elastics.ai]. Be sure to stop by if you’re in the area! RSVP here. [https://luma.com/9c97tbpq] Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe [https://supercycle.blog/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Harry Crane on Insider Trading, Market Microstructure, and Futarchy

Featuring Harry Crane [http://harrycrane.com]. Harry has some great insights on market mechanics! One of the most interesting podcasts we’ve done, as well as the first episode co-hosted by both Eli and Flip since the rebrand. Episode #2 of The Supercycle podcast. We’ve got some very exciting guests coming up, so stay tuned for the next episode drop on Monday! And in case you missed it, read our investigation [https://supercycle.blog/p/more-perfect-union-less-perfect-facts] into left-wing media company More Perfect Union. Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe [https://supercycle.blog/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Metaculus Forecasters Panel

Featuring Ben Shindel [https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/123595/], Yann Riviere [https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/119188/], and Adonis Silva [https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/114613/]. Excellent conversation including discussion on forecasting process, data intake, how prediction markets differ from traditional forecasting, and even some P(Doom) reveals at the end. Episode #1 of The Supercycle Podcast. We’re looking forward to podcasting with Harry Crane later in the week. Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe [https://supercycle.blog/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]