Energy Markets Daily

Week 25 Opens: Deal Imminent, Crude Crashes

Monday, June 15, 2026. WEEK 25 OPENS. The deal is done or nearly done. Strait of Hormuz about to reopen. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures $80.07-$80.77, down 4.8-5.7% on day. Intraday range $80.00-$82.42. Previous close ~$84.88. Earlier in week: $92-$93 (Jun 11), $86-$87 (Jun 12). CATALYST: Geopolitical risk premium evaporating. US and Iran close to finalizing MOU. Both sides agreed on text. Signing could happen in coming days. DEAL TERMS: Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, no tolls on passage, prewar shipping levels restored within ~30 days. US naval blockade on Iranian ports lifted. Some sanctions waivers allowing Iran to sell oil freely during initial period. 60-day ceasefire extension framework. Nuclear issues deferred to follow-up negotiations. IMPLICATION: Crude crashing because war premium gone. Supply disruption risk that drove prices to $95 evaporating. Thesis was right—geopolitical spikes fade, mean reversion kicks in. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot (Jun 8) $3.10/MMBtu. July futures ~$3.14/MMBtu. August futures ~$3.18/MMBtu. Storage (week ending Jun 5): 2,686 Bcf, +108 Bcf injection. 5 Bcf below year-ago, 151 Bcf (+6%) above 5-year average. Next storage report: Jun 18. SETUP: Gas holding accumulation range. Storage ample. Injections strong. No weather shock yet. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Crude—fade trade on. Strait reopens, supply flows, prices crash toward $70-$75 range. Short any bounces above $82. Gas—accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Week 25 opens with crude collapsing on deal news. War premium gone. Mean reversion accelerates. Gas decoupled and holding. Accumulation thesis intact. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Geographic Feature: Peru

Friday, June 12, 2026. PERU ENERGY MARKET: South America's first LNG exporter and modest but strategic global natural gas player. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: 2025: 14,769.6 million cubic meters (up from 14,480 in 2024). Primary source: Camisea fields (Blocks 88 & 56). Production stable but constrained by feedgas availability and field maturity. LNG EXPORTS: Peru LNG terminal (Pampa Melchorita): 4.5 mtpa capacity, operating since 2010. 2025 exports: 5,293.6 million cubic meters (up from 5,090 in 2024). Contract structure: ~70% to Mexico's CFE under long-term contracts, balance on spot market. Recent trend: Declines in some periods due to maintenance, technical issues, feedgas constraints. MARKET POSITION: South America's first LNG exporter. Modest global LNG player vs. major exporters (Australia, Qatar, US). Fitch Ratings: Peru LNG S.R.L. IDRs at B, Stable outlook (2025). Liquidity, profitability, leverage tied to operations and LNG market dynamics. STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE: Peru LNG provides Mexico ~70% of its LNG supply under long-term contracts. Camisea fields mature but still productive. No major new discoveries announced. Amazon Basin fields (e.g., Bretana by PetroTal) provide supplementary oil production. CHALLENGES: Feedgas constraints limit export growth. Field maturity requires ongoing investment. Maintenance and technical issues periodically disrupt operations. Spot market exposure creates revenue volatility. THE OUTLOOK: Peru remains stable, modest LNG exporter. Not growth story, maintenance story. Camisea fields continue producing for years but decline curves inevitable. For institutional capital, Peru LNG offers stable cash flows and long-term contracts. Upside limited. BOTTOM LINE: Peru—stable LNG exporter, mature fields, modest growth, long-term contracts, execution risk from maintenance. Defensive energy play in South America. Not frontier opportunity.

Geographic Feature: Madagascar

Thursday, June 11, 2026. MADAGASCAR ENERGY MARKET: Sits on massive untapped oil reserves but remains net importer with minimal commercial production. OIL RESERVES: Total potential ~20 billion barrels of oil in place/resources. Tsimiroro field (Madagascar Oil, Block 3104): 1.7-2 billion barrels heavy oil, 25-year development license (2015), pilot/production since ~2013. Bemolanga field: 16.6 billion barrels ultra-heavy oil/bitumen (~9.8 billion recoverable), one of world's largest undeveloped bitumen deposits, historically partnered with Total. Combined (Tsimiroro + Bemolanga): ~9.9 billion barrels (2022 assessment). USGS undiscovered (Morondava Basin): Mean 5.1 billion barrels, F95-F5 range 1.4-11.8 billion barrels. NATURAL GAS: Proven reserves zero, minimal/no commercial production. Potential >91 billion m³ (older estimates), some exploration wells showed non-commercial gas flows. Interest linked to nearby Mozambique discoveries. PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION: No significant commercial oil production (pilot-scale only). Consumption ~19,000-19,465 bpd (2024), net importer. Electricity heavily dependent on imported fuels. ENERGY MIX: ~76% of final energy consumption from biofuels/waste. Low electrification and renewable penetration relative to potential. EXPLORATION: Multiple international companies active (onshore/offshore). Madagascar Oil longest-operating player with largest onshore acreage. Historical wells showed light oil and gas potential. THE OPPORTUNITY: Madagascar has reserves but lacks infrastructure, capital, political stability for rapid development. Heavy oil extraction technically challenging/expensive. Bitumen requires advanced technology and significant upfront investment. For patient capital with long-term horizons, frontier play. Execution risk high. BOTTOM LINE: Madagascar—massive reserves, minimal production, high risk, long timeline. Not near-term energy market mover. Speculative frontier play for institutional capital with deep pockets and patience.

Crude Elevated On War Premium

Wednesday, June 10, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI trading $88.20-$89.34 range, high near $90, low near $88.28. Earlier in week spiked to $95.47 on Iran tensions, retraced $4+ as tensions eased. YTD gains ~55-58%. Futures curve backwardation amid supply concerns. Geopolitical volatility dominant driver. Setup: Crude range-bound, waiting for Strait clarity. If negotiations succeed and Strait reopens, crude crashes. If talks fail and conflict escalates, crude spikes. Market pricing stalemate with occasional flare-ups. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot June 1 $3.07/MMBtu. Futures NGN26 ~$3.183. May 2026 average $2.94/MMBtu. EIA STEO: $3.50/MMBtu full-year 2026 average. STORAGE: Week ending May 29 (released June 4): 2,578 Bcf working gas, +95 Bcf net injection. 3 Bcf below year-ago, 138 Bcf (6%) above 5-year average. Next report June 11. Setup: Gas holding accumulation range. Storage ample, production strong, seasonal factors neutral. Waiting for weather shock or LNG demand spike. GEOPOLITICAL: US Army helicopter crashed near Strait June 9, pilots stable/uninjured. Trump blamed Iran, US conducted proportional retaliatory strikes. Trump maintains deal close, Strait could reopen shortly after signing. Negotiations in final throes, possible deal in 2-3 days. Sticking points: Iran's nuclear enrichment (US demands long-term suspension, HEU dilution, site dismantling, snap inspections). Iran resisting. BOTTOM LINE: Crude elevated on war premium. Gas decoupled. Negotiations fluid. Helicopter incident adds volatility but Trump optimistic. If Strait reopens, crude crashes. If talks fail, crude spikes. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Waiting for Strait Clarity

Tuesday, June 9, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading $88-$91 range. Consolidation pattern intact. Pivot $90.89. Support: $90.68 (S1), $90.39 (S2), $90.18 (S3), $88.70, $87.30, $85.09. Resistance: $91.18 (R1), $91.39 (R2), $91.68 (R3), $92.50, $93.50, $94.99. Speculative range $83-$93, broader June range $71.73-$106.74. Consolidation likely without clear breakout. Tests of $85-$88 supports or $93-$97 resistances depend on news (inventories, geopolitics, Strait). Technical bias: short-term neutral, waiting for catalyst. Volume declining, Bollinger bands tightening, volatility compression suggests big move coming. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub holding accumulation range, trading $3.00-$3.30. Resistance: $3.111 (R1), $3.182 (R2), $3.309 (R3), $3.30 area, $3.736. Support: $2.913 (S1), $2.786 (S2), $2.715 (S3), buy zone $2.883-$2.676. Gas consolidating, waiting for catalyst. Storage ample, production strong, seasonal factors neutral. Technical bias: neutral to slightly bullish. If breaks above $3.30, target $3.736. If breaks below $2.913, target $2.676. THE READ: Both markets consolidating. Crude waiting for Strait clarity. Gas waiting for weather or storage shock. Trade the levels. Respect the technicals.