Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7VGc3dXReI] China, Get the Hell Out! 3:58 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7VGc3dXReI&t=238s] Tuesday Selloff 7:52 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7VGc3dXReI&t=472s] Brazil Export Problems 9:09 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7VGc3dXReI&t=549s] Tariff Update 10:38 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7VGc3dXReI&t=638s] Wheat Purchase Agreements 11:47 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7VGc3dXReI&t=707s] Flash Sales 🎯 US Cracks Down on Foreign Farmland Ownership + Grain Market Movers! 🌽📉🌎 🚨 National Farm Security Alert! The Trump administration is taking major steps to restrict foreign ownership of U.S. farmland—especially from China 🇨🇳. Under the new National Farm Security Action Plan, the USDA will team up with state leaders and the Treasury Department to review land purchases more closely. Fines for false or late filings will jump to 25% 💰. In 2023, foreign ownership rose to 45 million acres—but less than 1% is held by China.  🌽 Corn Futures Slide Again Corn prices dropped for the second day as the Dec25 contract settled near $4.14/bu. The USDA crop report showed 74% of corn is rated good-to-excellent—the best for this week since 2018! A mild forecast with scattered rains is keeping crop stress low and boosting yield outlooks 📊. 🇧🇷 Brazilian Corn Faces Export Jams Brazil's corn exports are up 📈, but soybeans may clog the ports. China is buying big on beans, but is pulling back on corn after a strong domestic crop. Brazil will have to turn to Iran, Egypt, and Vietnam to make up the gap—but those markets won’t match China’s demand. 📦 Trump's Tariff Clock Is Ticking Trump says no more extensions—his reciprocal tariffs hit Aug 1. Copper will face a 50% tariff, causing a historic price spike 📈🪙. Imported drugs could see 200% tariffs unless production shifts to the US. More sectors may follow: semiconductors, metals, and more. 🌾 Indonesia Locks in US Wheat Deal To secure a trade agreement, Indonesia will purchase $1.25B in US wheat through 2030. This year’s target: 800,000mt—up 8% YoY 📄. Future annual buys will rise to 1mmt. Wheat still makes up a small portion of Indonesia’s total grain imports, but more deals on corn and soybeans could follow! 🚢 Flash Sales! The USDA announced: • 📦 144,000mt soybean meal to 🇵🇭 Philippines • 🌽 112,776mt (4M bushels) of corn to 🇲🇽 Mexico Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay on top of all the latest ag policy, weather, and market news! 📺✅

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slEhGJ26Uyc] Monday Selloff 3:07 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slEhGJ26Uyc&t=187s] Trade Stuff 4:33 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slEhGJ26Uyc&t=273s] Corn Yield Prospects 9:23 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slEhGJ26Uyc&t=563s] The Funds 10:21 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slEhGJ26Uyc&t=621s] Grain Shipments 11:15 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slEhGJ26Uyc&t=675s] Flash Sale 📉 Corn & Soybeans Slide on Weather & Trade Letdown 🌽🌦️ Monday brought a sharp sell-off in grain futures, with Dec25 corn falling 🌽 16¢ to ~$4.21 and Nov25 soybeans plunging 🌱 29¢ to ~$10.21. Why the drop? 🌤️ Ideal Midwest weather continues, and traders were let down by no new trade deals from President Trump’s Iowa speech last week. 📉📊 💼 Trump Turns Up the Heat on Tariffs 🇺🇸📑 The President sent tariff warning letters to key trade partners. 📬 Japan & South Korea—major US corn buyers—now face potential 25% tariffs if no deal is reached by August 1. 🌏 Countries aligning with BRICS policies (like 🇨🇳 China and 🇧🇷 Brazil) could face an extra 10% tariff. 🌽 Crop Conditions Shine ☀️ • Corn: 74% good-to-excellent, best early July rating since 2018 • Soybeans: 66% good-to-excellent, best since 2020 (excl. 2023) Analysts eye above-trend corn yields—potentially 184.6 to 188.2 bpa based on strong early ratings 📈 🌾 Wheat Update • Spring wheat slips for the 3rd week ➡️ 50% G/E (below avg) • Winter wheat harvest hits 53%, just under average 💰 Money Flow & Export Buzz 💸 • Funds increased their short in corn (net short: 190k contracts) • Corn exports: Up 8% week-over-week, +46% YoY 🚢 • Soybean & wheat shipments: Strong, near top end of expectations • Flash sale: 135,000mt corn to Mexico, spanning two crop years 🇲🇽 👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments! ✅ Subscribe for more grain market insights! #Corn [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/corn] #Soybeans [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/soybeans] #Trump [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/trump] #Tariffs [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/tariffs] #GrainMarkets [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/grainmarkets] #Wheat [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/wheat] #FarmingNews [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/farmingnews] #CropConditions [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/cropconditions] #Exports [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/exports] #USDA [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/usda] #Commodities [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/commodities] #GrainFutures [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/grainfutures] #Agriculture [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/agriculture] 🌽🌎📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxMEaWNy-wQ] No Trade Deals, Markets Tumble 2:07 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxMEaWNy-wQ&t=127s] OBBB and Farmers 3:42 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxMEaWNy-wQ&t=222s] Tariff Deadlines 6:38 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxMEaWNy-wQ&t=398s] Drought/Weather Update 8:23 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxMEaWNy-wQ&t=503s] Record Corn Export Program Possible? 9:50 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxMEaWNy-wQ&t=590s] Russia Slashes Wheat Export Tax 10:57 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxMEaWNy-wQ&t=657s] Flash Sales 🇺🇸 President Trump’s Rally in Iowa: “One Big Beautiful Bill” Signed Into Law! 🚜📉🔥 President Trump took the stage in Des Moines on Thursday, celebrating the passage of his massive new tax and spending bill — claiming it will “Make America Great Again” 🇺🇸💵. While no new trade deals were announced (despite trader hopes), he highlighted 🔻 egg prices, 🔥 US military action in Iran, and ⬇️ border crossings. He also reassured farmers their labor force is safe, though details were thin. 🌽🚫 Corn & soybean futures are sharply lower this morning as trade rumors fizzled out. 📜 What’s in the “Big Beautiful Bill”? ✅ $68.3B in new farm program funding ✅ Higher PLC & ARC reference prices for this crop year ✅ Increased payment limits & lifted income caps ✅ Up to 30M new base acres allowed (2019–2023 history) ✅ $6.3B for crop insurance over 10 years ✅ Expanded premium support for beginning farmers ✅ 🇺🇸 US-only feedstock rule for biofuel tax credits (2026) ✅ 🔁 Extension of 45Z through 2029 ✅ ✂️ SAF credit cut from $1.75 ➡️ $1.00/gal ✅ ⛽️ Boost to biomass-based diesel 🛃 Tariff Deadline Extended? Originally set for July 9, the tariff deadline may be pushed to August 1 for countries still negotiating 🤝. Sec. Bessent says talks with 18 major partners are ongoing — with frameworks announced for 🇬🇧 UK, 🇨🇳 China, and 🇻🇳 Vietnam. Still pending: 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇮🇳 India, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇪🇺 EU. 🌧️ Drought Update: Big Improvement! Thanks to recent rains, drought conditions dropped sharply across the 🌽 Corn Belt and 🌾 High Plains! 🔹 Corn: 12% in drought 🔹 Soybeans: 8% 🔹 Winter wheat: 24% 🔹 Spring wheat: 29% 🔹 Cattle areas: 18% 📦 Export Sales Recap: 🔹 Corn: 532,700mt ➡️ ⬇️ 28% vs. last week 🔹 Soybeans: 462,400mt ➡️ ⬆️ 15% vs. last week 🔹 Wheat: 586,000mt ➡️ ⬆️ strong sales led by 🇵🇭 Philippines 📢 Flash Sales Alert: ✔️ 150,000mt corn ✔️ 226,000mt soybeans ✔️ 195,000mt soymeal (spread across 24/25 & 25/26) 🌍 Russia Cuts Wheat Export Tax to Zero! 🇷🇺 In a surprise move, Russia slashed its wheat export tax to zero for July 9–15 to boost weak overseas demand. June wheat exports were just 1.1mmt — a fraction of last year’s volume. Expect volatility in global wheat markets to continue. 📊 See all charts below & don’t miss today’s premium breakdown with Paul Neiffer! 👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe for more critical ag market updates!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnBl_qv1CCU] Trump, Iowa and Trade Deals 4:45 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnBl_qv1CCU&t=285s] Vietnam/US Trade Deal 6:50 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnBl_qv1CCU&t=410s] US Weather Update 8:33 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnBl_qv1CCU&t=513s] Ethanol Production 11:45 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnBl_qv1CCU&t=705s] Stock Market Records 🎤🇺🇸 President Trump Visits Iowa: Big Trade Talk & Market Moves! 🌽📈 📍 LIVE from the Iowa State Fairgrounds! President Trump takes the stage tonight at 7:30pm CST as part of the America250 Kick-Off Celebration. In a recent Truth Social post, he thanked Iowans for their strong support over the past three elections and teased major updates on ag trade 👀🚜 🌎 🌾 Global Trade Buzz Rumors are flying about possible new trade deals with China & India 📈 Speculation alone sent grain markets soaring yesterday Trump’s Iowa visit may bring 🔥 announcements 🇻🇳 Vietnam Deal Announced! Trump revealed a new US-Vietnam agreement: ✅ $2B in American ag purchases ✅ Tariff-free entry for US goods ⛔ 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports + 40% on transshipped goods Vietnam may not be a game-changer like China, but it’s a solid win for US ag 💪 ☀️🌧️ Corn Belt Weather Outlook Near-normal rainfall expected next 7 days Dry in central/eastern Corn Belt short term Wetter pattern shifts eastward 8–14 day range Temps staying 1–4°F above normal = continued heat risk 🌡️ 🍻 Ethanol Snapshot Weekly production: 1.08M bpd (down slightly but still strong) Stocks high at 24.12M barrels Margins improved over the past week 💵 📊 Markets React to Trade News 📈 S&P 500 hit record high (+0.5%) 💻 Nasdaq also set new record (+1%) 📉 Dow dipped slightly Investors eye more trade deals before the July 9 tariff deadline ⚠️ ADP data shows surprise job losses — watch today’s jobs report for Fed rate clues! 👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments! Will Trump drop trade bombshells tonight? 🔔 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates on grain, trade, and markets!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx0zOdQQByc] Subscribe to the Channel! 0:52 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx0zOdQQByc&t=52s] 190 Corn Yield? 5:40 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx0zOdQQByc&t=340s] US Weather 7:28 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx0zOdQQByc&t=448s] Big Brazil Corn Crop 9:14 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx0zOdQQByc&t=554s] Farmer Sentiment 11:35 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx0zOdQQByc&t=695s] Biofuel and Senate 🌽 Corn Yield Chatter Heats Up! 🔥 There's buzz in the trade about US corn yields. Some analysts suggest yields could be 2–5% above trend, placing the national average anywhere from 184.6 to 190.1 bpa. But others argue that such numbers are unlikely due to record acreage (95.2M planted) and reduced input use from farmers. I’m not picking a side—but the chatter is loud enough to mention. 👂💬 🌦️ Weather Watch: Scattered Rains & Heat ☀️ Over the next 5 days, only scattered rainfall is expected—mainly in Minnesota & Wisconsin. 🌀 Euro vs. GFS disagreement: Euro model = wetter outlook GFS model = dry in the east 🔥 Above-normal temps will persist, and the 8–14 day forecast suggests more heat (though ensemble data is cooler).  🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update: StoneX Raises the Bar 📈 StoneX now pegs Brazil’s corn crop at a record 136.1 MMT, up from 134 MMT, with the second crop at 108.2 MMT. 🫘 Brazil soybean forecast also bumped up slightly to 168.8 MMT. 🇺🇸 For reference, USDA’s Brazil corn estimate is still at 130 MMT—that’s a 240M bushel difference! USDA & CONAB update next week. 📉 Farmer Sentiment Drops on Trade Worries 🧠 The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer fell to 146 in June, down 12 points from May. 🌍 Main concern? Ag exports. 46% believe Trump’s tariffs will hurt income.  27% believe they’ll help.  🛢️ Biofuel Battle: Big Oil vs. Farmers ⚔️ A fight is brewing over the 45Z tax credit. Farm groups want it limited to feedstocks from North America 🌎 The oil industry opposes this, saying it would raise fuel prices ⛽ 👉 This policy would boost soybean oil demand and align with Trump’s “America First” agenda. 🇺🇸 🔔 Don't forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Let's talk grain markets! 🌾🗣️