Main Street Business Insights

8 Predictions for 2026: What Small Businesses Need to Know

What trends will shape Main Street businesses in 2026? And how can you prepare now?  In this annual predictions episode, host Matt Wagner analyzes the intersection of society, technology, and economic trends to forecast what's ahead for small businesses and Main Streets. Drawing from consumer data, industry reports, and Main Street America's latest research, Matt identifies eight key trends that will impact everything from retail strategies to food and beverage concepts to financing models.  Before looking ahead, Matt reviews his 2025 predictions — scoring a win on retail growth projections (flat to stagnant when adjusted for inflation), a loss on GPL-1 drug impacts (a year too early), and a draw on AI adoption by nonprofits (usage is there, but not in the predicted areas).  Here are the eight predictions for 2026:  1. Big Impacts from the K-Shaped Economy: Upper-income households with stock market gains will drive spending while lower-income groups face stagnation, creating an economy reliant on less than 30% of consumers. Small businesses with fewer than 50 employees shed 120,000 jobs in November 2025 alone. Strategy: Focus on deals that demonstrate value for both income levels.  2. Big Shifts in Social Media: New laws restricting children's social media use in the UK and Australia, declining alcohol consumption correlated with social media use, and growing displeasure with online discourse will drive consumers toward in-person connections. Result: Experiential shopping and "plug-in spaces" will benefit, but reaching consumers requires shifting away from traditional social media to websites, Google profiles, and word-of-mouth.  3. Opportunities for Main Street Manufacturers: America 250 celebrations combined with trade isolation create market opportunities for small-scale manufacturers. Main Street America's new Made Originals program will support the 25,000+ manufacturers and brand creators in the network.  4. Younger Generations Gain Importance: As boomers age out, Millennials and Gen Z will drive spending and retail sector shifts. Businesses must focus marketing and outreach on these generations' needs and preferences.  5. New Options for Finance and Ownership: The largest wealth transfer in American history ($100 trillion estimated) combined with Millennials' and Gen Z's challenges with individual asset ownership will drive creative financing structures including co-ops, Employee Ownership Trusts (EOT), owner financing models, and customer capital platforms like NuMarket.  6. E-Commerce Moves to Brick-and-Mortar: Direct-to-consumer brands face 40% increases in customer acquisition costs and are opening physical stores as showrooms and brand-building tools. Online has become transactional; consumers want experiential consumption and community engagement.  7. Changes in Food and Beverage: Only 54% of U.S. adults now consume alcohol (lowest in 90 years), most pronounced among 18-34-year-olds. GPL-1 drugs depress cravings. Expect decreases in alcohol-dependent restaurants/bars and rises in late-night coffee and non-alcoholic venues. Alpha-Gal allergies and rising beef prices will shift menus toward non-beef and vegetarian/vegan options.  8. Circular Retail Expands Beyond Apparel: Closed-loop systems keeping products in use through reuse, repair, and recycling will migrate to more sectors. Smart business model for diversifying revenue without massive cost increases—example: bike shops that sell, repair, trade-in, refurbish, repurpose parts, and rent equipment.  Bonus Prediction: 2026 is the Year of Small Business! Our yet-to-be-released 2026 Directors' Survey shows "supporting businesses and entrepreneurs" as the #1 programming priority, and small business programming had the greatest community impact. With new resources including the Small Business Hub, Made Originals, grant programs, and the Hartford Small Business Accelerator, Main Street programs will cement their support for the small business sector.  Whether you're a Main Street director planning 2026 programming, a business owner adapting your strategy, or an entrepreneur considering launch, these predictions provide a roadmap for navigating the year ahead.  Note: At the end of February, we’ll pause new episodes of the podcast as we shift focus to the Small Business Hub and Made Originals programming. Explore our extensive back catalog here [https://mainstreet.org/resources/main-street-business-insights-podcast] for insights on succession planning, disaster recovery, scaling businesses, and more.  Connect:  * Review the 2025 Director’s Survey results [https://mainstreet.org/the-latest/news/main-spotlight-eight-graphics-that-explain-main-street-leadership-in-2025]  * Review the latest Small Business Survey results [https://mainstreet.org/the-latest/news/main-spotlight-main-street-business-owners-are-eager-for-holiday-sales-and-economic-stability]  * Listen to past predictions episodes here [https://mainstreet.org/resources/knowledge-hub/podcast/small-business-predictions-for-2025] and here [https://mainstreet.org/resources/knowledge-hub/podcast/2024-predictions-for-main-street-businesses]  * Learn about Made Originals [https://www.madeoriginals.org/]  * Join MSA’s Small Biz Hub [https://smallbusiness.mainstreet.org/]    Episode Links:  * Watch video episode  [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-5F10Voc3s] * Listen on Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/main-street-business-insights/id1700542346]  * Listen on Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/1iotVHKPAWKHTo02Cv9WJv]  * Subscribe for updates [https://mainstreet.org/the-latest/subscribe]  Join us next time for more insights into the evolving landscape of Main Street business.

Small-Scale Manufacturing on Main Street (The Sweet Granada Chocolate Shop)

In this episode, host Matt Wagner sits down with Kim Redeker, owner of The Sweet Granada Chocolate Shop in Emporia, Kansas. Over 21 years, Kim has grown from a 500-square-foot storefront with two employees (herself and her mom) to a 3,200-square-foot production facility employing 21-28 people depending on the season, plus two retail locations. In 2025, The Sweet Granada was also voted the #2 best candy shop by USA Today Readers! [https://10best.usatoday.com/awards/sweet-granada-emporia-kansas/] Kim's journey reveals the strategic advantages small-scale manufacturers have on Main Street: the ability to jump on viral trends (Dubai bars, cocoa bombs) before mass market catches up, the capacity to create custom products quickly using local technology, and how community connection keeps dollars and talent local.  Discover Kim's approach to:  * Expansion decisions and timing: Why she initially expanded too slowly due to brand identity concerns, and how splitting production from retail solved the challenge.  * Speed to market advantages: Capitalizing on viral trends with six-month windows before mass producers flood the market, generating unexpected revenue during slow seasons.  * Community ecosystem support: Leveraging Emporia Main Street, the local Small Business Development Center chapter, and the local fab lab for custom mold generation and manufacturing solutions.  * Navigating cost pressures: Adapting to cocoa price increases (three major increases in 12 months) through loyalty programs, packaging optimization, and strategic pricing.  * Wholesale growth strategies: How offsite production created capacity for wholesale distribution across Kansas, driving retail traffic from unexpected markets.  * Technology and scaling: Using fab lab technology for small-run custom molds, exploring AI applications, and planning equipment investments for signature product scaling  * Labor and hiring evolution: Moving beyond 15-minute interviews to more comprehensive hiring and coaching processes  Whether you're a small-scale producer considering expansion, a Main Street director supporting makers and manufacturers, or a business owner wondering how to compete with mass market, this conversation offers practical insights on building a manufacturing business without leaving downtown.  Join us as Kim shares why her only regret is not starting sooner, how small makers make communities more interesting, and what it means to stay "light on your feet" as an entrepreneur.  This episode also previews Main Street America's new Made Originals initiative [http://madeoriginals.com/], a soon-to-come program supporting small-scale manufacturers and brand creators in the Main Street network through giving access to national markets, education, certification, and access to capital.  Get a limited edition box of Made Originals chocolates [https://sweetgranada.com/products/8pc-main-street-america-gift-box?utm_source=copyToPasteBoard&utm_medium=product-links&utm_content=web] from Main Street maker, The Sweet Granada Chocolate Shop! Use code MSA26 for 30% off through 2/14. Connect:  * Learn about The Sweet Granada Chocolate Shop [https://sweetgranada.com/]  * Get a special Made Originals chocolate bar set! [https://sweetgranada.com/products/8pc-main-street-america-gift-box?utm_source=copyToPasteBoard&utm_medium=product-links&utm_content=web]  * Learn about Emporia Main Street [https://emporiamainstreet.com/]  * Learn about Made Originals [https://www.madeoriginals.org/]  * Join MSA’s Small Biz Hub [https://smallbusiness.mainstreet.org/#entry:316189@2:url]  Episode Links:  * Watch video interview  [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Je2Js6RhsVY] * Listen on Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/main-street-business-insights/id1700542346]  * Listen on Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/1iotVHKPAWKHTo02Cv9WJv]  * Subscribe for updates [https://mainstreet.org/the-latest/subscribe]  Join us next time for more insights into the evolving landscape of Main Street business.

Growing a Business with Intention (Honeybee Sage Wellness & Apothecary)

How do you build a scalable business without losing its origins; what makes it truly special? In this episode, host Matt Wagner sits down with Angela Mallett, founder of Honeybee Sage Wellness & Apothecary in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. In their conversation, Angela shares her intentional approach to growth, one that prioritizes community care and cultural healing over rapid expansion. Angela's journey began with massage therapy and a calling to bring ancestral herbal wisdom back to underserved communities. Starting in 2018 in the heart of Milwaukee's 53206 zip code — one of the city's most challenging areas — Honeybee Sage has become more than a tea shop. It's an apothecary rooted in the healing traditions of her great-great uncle, a root doctor from Mississippi, offering herbal remedies as medicine. Discover Angela's approach to: * Strategic location decisions: Why she chose her location specifically to serve underserved communities while remaining accessible to all demographics. * Scaling with integrity: Her vision to franchise without losing community focus * Building through adversity: Navigating her father's death, a stroke, and a dissolved business partnership all within the first seven months of operation. * Team development: Growing from solo operator to a management structure that allows expansion while maintaining quality and culture. * Mission-driven business: Operating on faith and purpose rather than fear of economic uncertainty, with the goal of creating a "global community of homegrown healers". * Creating healing spaces: Designing environments where nervous systems regulate before customers even order tea. Whether you're an entrepreneur considering expansion, a Main Street director supporting mission-driven businesses, or a business owner wondering how to scale without sacrificing values, this conversation offers a refreshing perspective on intentional growth. Join us as Angela shares why she works "like she doesn't need the money," how herbal tea serves as accessible medicine, and what it means to be a professional "space creator" for community healing.

Recovering After Catastrophe (DT's Blue Ridge Java)

About the Episode What happens after a natural disaster hits your Main Street? This episode provides insights on how Main Street leaders and business owners can learn how to be better prepared for disaster from others who have recently gone through recovery efforts. In this special roundtable episode, host Matt Wagner sits down with community leaders from Spruce Pine, North Carolina, one year after Hurricane Helene devastated their downtown. Featuring Mayor Philip Hise, owners of DT’s Blue Ridge Java David Niven and Zan Sistare, Main Street Director Spencer Bost, and Town Manager Daniel Stines, this conversation goes beyond the immediate aftermath to address the complex realities of long-term recovery. Located in the Appalachian Mountains with a population of approximately 2,300, Spruce Pine faced complete loss of water, power, and communication for 17-21 days. The town is now managing an estimated $50 million in municipal damages while supporting the recovery of downtown businesses like DT's Blue Ridge Java.   DT’s Blue Ridge Java was a recipient of Main Street America's Backing Small Businesses Disaster Recovery Grant supported by American Expres [https://mainstreet.org/the-latest/news/turning-hardship-into-hope-backing-small-businesses-program-helps-100-owners-recover-from-natural-disasters#entry:354343@1:url]s – in the episode, you’ll hear a bit about how the grant helped their recovery efforts.  Discover the critical lessons they learned about:  * Why communication infrastructure failure was more devastating than physical damage  * What volunteer organizations made the difference in the first critical weeks  * The reality of 15+ day delays in federal emergency response  * Building improvements and infrastructure planning that matter for future mitigation  Whether your community faces hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, or wildfires, these lessons apply. Learn what actually helps, what doesn't, and ways to prepare your Main Street before disaster strikes.  Join us as we hear directly from this resilient community about their experiences with loss, recovery, and rebuilding—and what other Main Street leaders and business owners can learn from their story.  Looking for more disaster resilience resources? Download Main Street America’s Disaster Recovery & Resilience Toolkit here. [https://mainstreet.org/resources/knowledge-hub/toolkit/main-street-disaster-and-resilience-toolkit#entry:293814@1:url]  Connect:  * Learn about Downtown Spruce Pine [https://www.discoversprucepinenc.com/]  * Learn about the Town of Spruce Pine [https://www.townofsprucepine.com/]  * Learn about North Carolina Main Street & Rural Planning Center [https://www.ncmainstreetandplanning.com/]  * Learn about Main Street America's Backing Small Businesses Disaster Recovery Grant [https://mainstreet.org/the-latest/news/turning-hardship-into-hope-backing-small-businesses-program-helps-100-owners-recover-from-natural-disasters#entry:354343@1:url]  * Learn about DT’s Blue Ridge Java [https://www.dtsblueridgejavanc.com/]  Episode Links:  * Listen on Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/main-street-business-insights/id1700542346] * Listen on Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/1iotVHKPAWKHTo02Cv9WJv] * Subscribe for updates [https://mainstreet.org/the-latest/subscribe#entry:2406@1:url]

Fall 2025 Small Business Trends

About the Episode In this data-driven conversation, host Matt Wagner sits down with Mike Powe, Senior Director of Research at Main Street America, to break down findings from their Fall 2025 Small Business Survey. The survey of 1,295 businesses reveals that small business owners are experiencing persistent revenue and profitability challenges, broad societal instability impacting operations, and the measurable advantage of Main Street program support (nearly a full point higher confidence and 11% better revenue stability). Takeaways * Business confidence hitting its second-lowest point on record * Which types of businesses are faring better (professional services, established businesses, those with more employees) * How Main Street program support translates to real business outcomes * The characteristics that define authentic Main Street businesses  Episode Links: * Listen on Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/main-street-business-insights/id1700542346] * Listen on Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/1iotVHKPAWKHTo02Cv9WJv] * Subscribe for updates [https://mainstreet.org/the-latest/subscribe#entry:2406@1:url] Amex Shop Small Grants Program We have some super exciting news to share with you all! Main Street America and American Express are teaming up to launch a new grant program for small business owners. The Amex Shop Small Grants Program will provide an initial $5 million to fund 250 grants of $20,000 each to eligible small business owners across the U.S. The application will open on this Small Business Saturday, November 29, 2025.  And get this. Every time an American Express Card Member shops with their eligible Card at a qualifying U.S. small business on November 29, American Express will donate an additional $1 to fund additional grants.  So, there’s an extra incentive to get out there and support local businesses on Small Business Saturday! You can find eligible small businesses in your community on the Shop Small Map. American Express Debit Cards are not eligible.”   Find more information on our website at mainstreet.org/shopsmallgrant [mainstreet.org/shopsmallgrant].