Oils and Fats Podcast

Jul 7, 2026 - Does a bearish energy market mean bearish veg oils?

In a bi-weekly oils and fats webinar, Vesper’s veg oils analyst reviews June supply-demand and key price drivers across markets. For palm oil, estimates suggest Malaysian stocks rose 3–5% in June, with production up 7–11% and exports up 14–17%, keeping stocks historically high and pressuring prices alongside weaker Brent and delays to Indonesia’s B50 rollout. Brent futures fell to just under $72/bbl as Strait of Hormuz flows recover and OPEC+ signals higher output; recent attacks did not spike prices. Indonesia’s B50 is now expected to start around October after a transition period, implying a more sideways-to-slightly-up Q3 outlook supported by Indian festive demand and El Niño concerns. Soybean oil fell on reduced biofuel feedstock share (EIA) but rebounded on Chinese buying and US heat/dryness forecasts. Crop updates include record Canadian canola area, tighter EU rapeseed prospects, and higher sunflower production expectations in Russia/Ukraine with weather risks. Coconut oil prices bottomed and rebounded on higher copra costs, supply tightness, typhoon/El Niño risk, and possible Philippines B5; Q4 lauric oils carry upside risk due to seasonal production/crushing declines.

Jun 17, 2026 - Energy, Indonesia’s export centralization, and the crop outlook

Brent has slipped to its lowest in weeks, yet vegetable oils have not fallen as far. The question is what comes next. A fragile Middle East ceasefire and a reopening Strait of Hormuz have pulled energy lower, while palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower oils are holding more of their ground. At the same time, Indonesia’s move to route strategic exports through a new central body is reshaping how the world’s largest palm supplier reaches the market, and exporters are already adjusting. With a strong El Niño now declared, the crop outlook for palm, canola and Black Sea sunflower is far from settled. In this session you will get: • Where energy and veg oils are pulling apart, and what that tension means for price direction •️ The latest on Indonesia’s export centralisation and how it could move supply • A read on the crop outlook into the new season, El Niño included

Jun. 9, 2026 - El Niño crop risk, Indonesia's export overhaul, and where Brent goes next

In this Oils & Fats webinar, Maria discusses with Gehrman key market drivers for vegetable oils. They review Brent crude’s drop from mid-May highs (~$108–110) to around $95 amid fragile Middle East ceasefire negotiations and hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, noting conflicting outlooks: EIA projects a gradual decline through 2026–27 due to infrastructure damage, while oil majors warn low inventories could trigger a spike to $165. They explain Indonesia’s new export centralization policy starting June 1, aimed at curbing under-invoicing, with reporting now and potential government takeover of export operations by 2027, raising concerns about disruption and investment. They cover Malaysia palm oil stocks possibly rising in May, lauric (PKO) and coconut oil price weakness amid better coconut supply and Philippines exports, El Niño risks for 2027 and crops (notably Australia canola), rapeseed oil firmness with expectations of harvest-time easing, and sunflower oil supply improving but prices supported by other oils and energy.

May 12, 2026 - Energy markets, Palm kernel supply, and oilseed outlook

In this week's webinar we review key drivers across the oils complex. Brent crude fell from about $114 to $104/bbl, rebounding after the US called Iran’s proposal unacceptable; optimism around a potential US–Iran deal and Strait of Hormuz access keeps prices below highs, and vegetable oils track Brent due to biofuel feedstock demand. Malaysia’s April MPOB palm oil data met expectations: strong production, exports down ~15%, and stocks up ~1.7%, with year-to-date production a multi-year high; Indonesia also started strongly, though agencies warn H2 production risks from high fertilizer costs, El Niño, and land seizures. CBOT soybeans strengthened ahead of a Trump–Xi meeting amid hopes China may commit to buying US soybeans despite cheaper Brazilian supply. Canada’s canola stocks are 28% higher y/y due to weak early exports amid China duties later lifted; Europe faces tighter rapeseed stocks. Sunflower plantings in Ukraine, Russia, and Europe are behind last year, with fertilizer cost concerns, though agencies still expect higher production from larger acreage. In the lauric market, coconut oil prices are easing on improving Philippine output expectations and a backwardated curve, but exports remain low year-to-date; Malaysian palm kernel oil production and PKIO exports are strong, with combined Jan–Apr Malaysia+Indonesia PKIO exports at ~772k vs ~725k last year. Near-term price direction is highly dependent on Middle East developments, with Q2 viewed more bearish for coconut and palm kernel oils and palm oil correction limited unless Brent declines materially, while later-year palm oil has supportive biofuel and supply-risk factors.

Apr. 14, 2026 - Geopolitics and policy updates in Veg oil markets

In this oils and fats webinar, the hosts discuss key market drivers for procurement managers, starting with Middle East conflict developments and their impact on Brent crude, which dropped on ceasefire/Strait of Hormuz news then rebounded after failed talks and U.S. escalation signals; vegetable oil prices followed Brent’s swings, with futures reacting faster than physical benchmarks. They announce U.S. expansion via Sosland price data added to the platform. Biofuel policy updates include Indonesia’s B50 starting July 1 for PSO demand (adding roughly 1.8 million metric tons of palm oil demand) and Malaysia’s intent to move from B10 toward B15 via B12, both supportive for palm oil. The Philippines’ biofuel policy is uncertain, pressuring Manila coconut oil prices, while Thailand raised blending and limited palm oil exports. Malaysian March MPOB data showed sharply lower palm oil stocks (about 15%) on strong exports as demand shifted from Indonesia after an export tax hike; palm kernel oil stocks also fell, supporting prices amid production concerns. For sunflower oil, Argentina’s higher oil and seed exports are offsetting weaker Black Sea supply, and next-season production expectations are higher, adding bearish fundamentals if conflict risks fade.