On The Markets

AI Falling Back To Earth? What Fixed Income May Be Saying About The Cycle

SpaceX debuted at $150, surged to $232 in four days on a wave of AI excitement, then lost 34% of its value in a single week. It was the most hyped, most AI-adjacent IPO of 2026 — and when it turned, the Nasdaq, the chip stocks, and the rest of the tech trade turned with it. So is this just a speed bump, or is AI finally falling back to earth?    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • The highs and lows of the SpaceX IPO, and how hyperscaling AI companies are dealing with surging capital expenditures.  • How Bitcoin is experiencing it’s own volatility right now.  • What is the ‘credit spread cycle’ and how could it be influencing AI growth?  • What tomorrow’s rebalancing of the Russell 2000 could mean and could indicate about the future.  • Why Daren sees oil is telegraphing that the economy might be slowing down?    Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis [https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis]  0:00 Intro + gold running too hard and fast  4:19 Bitcoin sentiment is low  7:30 Investor sentiment  10:02 Hyperscalers capital expenditures affecting buybacks  13:30 Credit spread cycles  18:40 Where are we in the cycle?  21:40 Gas prices falling?!  24:20 PCE ticking up and market’s reaction  25:03 Interest rate hikes expected  27:20 10-Year Treasury Spread  30:25 Existing vs. New Housing supply  37:30 US Dollar Index  38:50 Gold and oil going down  41:50 Bitcoin loses 8 year old line of support  45:30 Interest rates  47:18 SpaceX played out like a film script for an IPO  50:45 Mag 7 trading down      Full video available on our YouTube Channel [https://youtube.com/live/pBN4k56LeDU]     _______________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

The Rate Held, But The Fed Has Changed

The Federal Reserve just held interest rates steady — but for the first time in years, the bigger story isn't the number, it's the man behind the decision. Kevin Warsh walked into his first FOMC meeting, cut the Fed's statement by more than half, skipped his own dot plot, and left Wall Street with more questions than answers. What a quieter Fed means for your money and your portfolio — let's find out on the markets.    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • Rates held, and the Fed indicated a potential rate hike.  But Daren sees one sign that a rate cut may in fact be coming this year.  • The index you might not know that’s quietly outperforming the biggest 7 stocks in the world.  • How did SpaceX’s IPO fare in it’s first full week?  • Who thought you could have a more out of touch product launch than the Metaverse?  Snapchat said “I’ll take those odds” this week, and their share price paid the price.    0:00 Intro  7:57 Changes at The Fed  11:10 IPO returns over time lag the market  13:00 The Knicks are a stock?  16:24 Investor sentiment  19:30 Historical US valuations  22:38 Russell 2000 outperforms Mag 7?  25:40 Seasonal performance matters?  26:30 Bond escape velocity  34:00 How did rate news affect the market?  50:00 Gold on the struggle bus        Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis    _______________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

This Week the Market Ran on Oil and Inflation

This week oil prices whipsawed on Iran headlines while a hot inflation print kept the Fed boxed in, and together they drove the narrative in the market. Is the war actually over...again?  How would oil stability affect your portfolio?  How did SpaceX actually perform? Let's find out, On The Markets.    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • How the price of oil and hot inflation numbers sent the S&P 500 into fits this week.  • Projected spending on AI has now surpassed the railroad buildout of the 1800s and the Louisiana purchase.  Perhaps that's why the Mag 7 are down 2.6% year to date?  • A list of 10 market triggers that historically have indicated a market peak, with 7 of them currently active.  • What were the results of the SpaceX IPO?    7:00 AI buildout surpasses railroad buildout  10:20 Peak market triggers  17:30 YTD returns by asset class  20:30 Emerging Markets earnings strength  22:40 Emerging Markets being driven by tech  25:30 S&P 500 without AI is flat  27:30 Oil inventories shift  28:24 Inflation is on the rise again  46:30 S&P rallied after a stop and start    Full video available on our YouTube Channel [https://youtube.com/live/ElCMDmUPRUc]   Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here [https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis]   _______________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

How the Dot Plot Has Secretly Been Affecting Your Portfolio (And Why It Might Be Going Away)

The Fed may soon scrap a tool called the dot plot...and most people have never even heard of it. But it has quietly shaped every mortgage rate, bond yield, and retirement projection in the last 14 years. Rumors indicate the new Fed Chair wants it gone by the June Fed meeting, and if it disappears, the financial roadmap Wall Street has relied on for over a decade goes with it. Let's find out how the dot plot may have been the phantom menace all along, On The Markets.    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Daren Blonski CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • How the “dot plot” has impacted mortgages, bonds and 401ks since 2012 and the impact of it’s potential disappearance.  • The all-time high breakout in the S&P cooled today.  Why Daren sees a potential “double top” forming, but “not all hope is lost”.  • A key bitcoin owner sold off this week.  Why bitcoin is sitting at critical support and where Daren sees it going.    0:00 What is The Dot Plot?  14:13 Ai selloff today  27:00 Nvidia triple top?  28:00 Oil in a descending wedge  29:00 Bitcoin selling off  34:50 Gold looking precarious  37:48 10 year treasury shot up and stayed elevated       Full YouTube video here [https://youtube.com/live/jZOTczSM0Is?feature=share]   Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis  [https://here//sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis]   _______________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Stock Market vs Economy: The Disconnect Explained

In the month of May 2026, The Dow hit a record high on the exact same day consumer sentiment hit an all-time low — and that disconnect is telling us something important. Wall Street is celebrating eight straight winning weeks while everyday Americans post their third straight monthly decline in confidence, creating the widest gap between markets and reality we've seen in years. Does sentiment finally catch up with the market and bring it back to earth?  Or like a SpaceX rocket are we about to blast even higher? Let's find out On The Markets.    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Chris Sipes CFP®, Daren Blonski CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • Consumer sentiment just hit an all-time low.  Historically, what have the next 12-months of S&P returns looked like in those scenarios?  • What 4 categories of loan delinquencies say about the average American family, only one isn’t near all-time highs.  • The Top 20% of America meanwhile are on an unprecedented run of growth since 2019, we’ve got the data to prove it.  • S&P 500 another all-time high. The key resistance line that has Daren thinking we're headed for "blue sky" territory.    Episode video available here: https://youtube.com/live/mnrwP9gSj74   Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis    _______________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.