A Cheeky Pint with Kyle Vogt, cofounder of Twitch, Cruise, and The Bot Company
Five to 10 hours a week people spend doing essentially unpaid, unskilled labor in their own home. Yet we all take that for granted, and do it every day. I think it's been the holy grail of robotics.
I think it will be strange to move into a home or apartment in five years that doesn't have a home robot. (Similar to not having plumbing)
What is the Turing test for robotics?
For anyone to be able to go buy a thing, put it in their home, and without any other instruction than, "My clothes are in my bedroom, please put them in the laundry machine and fold them and put them away..."
That, to me, would signify I think we've made it.
In one of our early prototypes, we do this thing where we just like dump a basket full of kids' toys in a room and say, "Hey, robot, clean this up." There's 49 toys on the ground. And over the course of 30 minutes - it took it a long time, this is a prototype-it cleaned up all the toys but one.
And my thought in that moment was,
"What percentage of success is that? That's like 95%, one 9 of reliability."
Yet everyone who was watching that was just like, "Where do I buy this? I need it now."
(In regard to regulations) Waymo or someone is doing all the groundwork in each new city.
The groundwork they're doing is because they don't know which small special interest group, or union, or local government, or city council, or state, you know, whatever it is...
There's probably two dozen lists of organizations that could meaningfully bring the thing to a halt in that community because there is no federal preemption, there's no real federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles.
And so they have to win that battle with every single stakeholder in every single location. So I hope... And there's maybe some signs of this, that the federal government will get ahead of this and establish that it's pretty clear at this point, that the data shows that these cars are saving lives, and reducing crashes.
So if we think that's important as a government, maybe there should be federal preemption, and we should ensure that this is open for everyone in the US.
If that happens, I think we'll see more self-driving cars. Absent that, I think it's gonna continue this really slow sort of city-by-city thing
What I see is really Tesla, as a company who pioneered the end-to-end neural network approach to self-driving, which I think is the right technical bet long-term.
With Waymo, they started off in the DARPA Grand Challenge era of self-driving, which is old-school, classical computer vision, classical motion planning. And they built this highly-validated, robust system that's now on public roads, and it's great, but they know that it's the wrong technical approach, and they need to move more in the direction of Tesla, of more neural networks. Because it is just intractable to maintain a 3D map of every square inch of the planet and update it in real time, and then expect that every time you go somewhere the map is still accurate, on one hand. To Waymo's credit, I think they know this, and they've started moving towards a Tesla-like approach.
The challenge is, they've got a validated safety-critical system on the road, and the last thing you want to do to a system like that is start changing stuff in it because that introduces risk.
You said you're never gonna sell a company again?
Why ?
If you go through all the pain of starting a company, and you do so knowing that you're going to spend 10 plus years of your life on something, and it's that important to you, and you've told everyone you know about this thing, and you've recruited all the best, the smartest people in the world that you know to work with you on this thing, why would you stop or give up control of that thing?
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