State of Play

What Can Negotiations Between Lebanon and Israel Achieve?

Under U.S. pressure, Lebanon and Israel recently entered into direct negotiations for the first time in 30 years. This week, Mona Yacoubian and Paul Salem join Will to discuss what each side is hoping to get out of the negotiations, how the talks fit into the broader regional context, and what the prospects for success are. * Paul Salem, “Lebanon and Israel Talks: Empowering Diplomacy Over Open-Ended Conflict [https://www.csis.org/analysis/lebanon-and-israel-talks-empowering-diplomacy-over-open-ended-conflict],” CSIS, May 14, 2026. * Mona Yacoubian, “Lebanon’s Moment of Reckoning, [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/21/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-trump-iran-cease-fire-talks-beirut/]” Foreign Policy, April 21, 2026.

What did the Trump-Xi Summit Achieve?

The U.S.-China summit covered trade, investment, the war with Iran, and Taiwan. Edgard Kagan, Scott Kennedy, and Bonny Lin joined Will to discuss how successful the summit was, what it means for the future of U.S.-China relations, and what we should be watching going forward. * Edgard Kagan and Bonny Lin, “Unpacking President Trump’s Visit to China | State of Play [https://www.csis.org/analysis/unpacking-president-trumps-visit-china-state-play],” CSIS, May 15, 2026. * Scott Kennedy, “A Confident Beijing Welcomes President Trump [https://www.csis.org/analysis/confident-beijing-welcomes-president-trump],” CSIS, May 11, 2026.

Is a Cold Peace with North Korea Possible?

North Korea has resisted decades of international denuclearization efforts, including the world’s most crippling sanctions regime. Victor Cha and Sydney Seiler join Will to discuss why U.S. strategy has failed, how the strategic landscape has shifted and increased North Korea's leverage, and what a better strategy would look like. * Victor Cha, “North Korea as It Is: The Case for a Cold Peace [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/north-korea/north-korea-it-victor-cha],” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2026. * Sydney Seiler, “North Korea in 2026: Intentions, Realities, and Response [https://www.csis.org/podcasts/impossible-state/north-korea-2026-intentions-realities-and-response],” CSIS, February 2, 2026.

Has the Iran War Transformed the Middle East's Future?

The war with Iran has roiled the economies of the Middle East, shattered trust between Iran and Arab Gulf states, challenged security arrangements, and highlighted the region's geopolitical importance. But looking ahead, how much has the war really changed the region's future, and what is likely to remain more constant? Vali Nasr, Michael Ratney, Mona Yacoubian, and Susan Ziadeh joined Will to discuss how the war has reshaped the Middle East. * Maria Fantappie and Vali Nasr, "Can Saudi Arabia Keep Hedging? [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/can-saudi-arabia-keep-hedging]" Foreign Affairs, May/June 2026. * Mona Yacoubian, "Why “Mowing the Grass” Won’t Work in Iran [https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-mowing-grass-wont-work-iran]," CSIS, April 17, 2026.

Will Orban’s Defeat Transform Europe?

Prime minister Victor Orban lost the Hungarian elections after 16 years in power. Péter Magyar’s landslide victory gave him a broad mandate for change and the ability to do so. Donatienne Ruy joins Will to discuss what changes he will make, what it means for Hungary’s relationship with the EU, and if this will be a game changer for Europe. * Donatienne Ruy, “What Happens After Hungary’s Election? Four Scenarios to Watch [https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-happens-after-hungarys-election-four-scenarios-watch],” CSIS, April 3, 2026. * Donatienne Ruy and Maria Snegovaya, “What Is at Stake in Hungary’s Election? [https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-stake-hungarys-election]” CSIS, March 11, 2026.