Stop the World

Denying Greenlanders self-determination would mean war: former Danish natsec adviser Bo Lidegaard

Donald Trump’s threats against Greenland spurred Europe to assert itself in ways it has never done before, says former Danish diplomat, national security adviser and top newspaper editor Bo Lidegaard. Six European NATO members went so far as to send troops to the autonomous island territory. Hot on the heels of European President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to Australia to sign trade and security agreements, Bo joins Stop the World to talk about the parlous state of global affairs and how Australia and Europe can work together to shape events for the better. Europe lacks the defence industrial base, the energy security and the technology to truly back up its strong diplomatic posture, Bo says—at least for now. Closer cooperation with countries such as Australia are one way that Europe is expanding its strategic options. Pulling together the many strategic threads dominating global headlines, Bo talks discusses Russia’s war against Ukraine, global supply chain fragility, energy and climate change, European innovation and self reliance, and the Iran war’s turbocharging effect on other geostrategic trends. For more on the EU-Australia security and defence agreement, read ASPI's latest Explainer by Bart Hogeveen:https://www.aspi.org.au/report/the-eu-australia-security-and-defence-agreement-not-a-pact-but-a-partnership/

What the hell do we do about Iran? With ASPI’s Justin Bassi and David Wroe

David Wroe and ASPI executive director Justin Bassi discuss the prospects for steering the Iran war towards a tolerable end that means neither a years-long quagmire nor an abrupt closure that hands Tehran a tacit win. Three weeks in, the Strait of Hormuz is the keystone. How do the US and other countries reopen the key energy route and stop Tehran from holding it in perpetuity as leverage over an anxious world? What are the thresholds the US and Israel need to reach on destroying Iran’s military capacity, killing its leadership and curbing its nuclear program in order to declare mission accomplished? And whatever frustrations US partners might be feeling about Donald Trump’s “excursion”, how do we muster some semblance of democratic cooperation to signal to the world’s autocrats that the West can come together to confront global challenges?

Arms Control Wonk’s Jeffrey Lewis on the Iran war and global nuclear risk

Three weeks into Donald Trump’s “Epic Fury” operation in Iran, STW speaks with Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear strategy and non-proliferation expert who runs the Arms Control Wonk blog and directs the East Asia Nonproliferation Project at the Middlebury Institute in California. Jeffrey and David discuss the difficulty of ending Iran’s nuclear program, the United States’ strategy, the hovering spectre of regime change, and the degrading of Iran’s missile capabilities and possibility of their reconstitution. Jeffrey explains the challenge of locking down proliferation of an 80-year-old technology and his view that diplomacy and deterrence need to play hefty roles. And he discusses the culture and psychology of risk in nuclear deterrence in the 21st century. Finally Jeffrey gives his views on China’s nuclear expansion and the dangers that follow the end of the US-Russia New START arms control pact last month. Jeffrey has clear views that don’t always chase convention but are based on his own legwork analysing open source research such as images from commercial satellite pictures. Links: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/

Aussie defence tech start-up Breaker lets you command swarms of robots. With co-CEO Michael Irwin

The war in Iran is being talked about as the first AI war. Every military on the planet is looking at how they adopt artificial intelligence at all levels from decision-making to controlling drones on the battlefield. Today, Michael Irwin, co-CEO of the Australian defence technology start-up Breaker, joins STW to explain where autonomous military technology is headed. Breaker makes software that allows military operators to coordinate teams of autonomous systems across air, land and sea by talking to them over a radio just like they’d talk to a human team. This enables one operator to control whole swarms of robots, even while he or she is flying a helicopter or assaulting a position. Michael explains how Breaker is applying its technology to intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance, freeing up personnel to concentrate on higher level tasks. And he shares his views on the philosophy, principles and ethics of automation on the battlefield, arguing that while our adversaries such as China might have lower thresholds for automating the use of force, we can deploy automation wisely while keeping our moral principles.

Estonia’s Foreign Minister: “Putin is just playing with Trump” on Ukraine peace

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna joins Stop the World for a conversation about Russia, Iran, the United States and the imperative for smaller countries such as Estonia and Australia to work together. Minister Tsahkna shares frank views from the perspective of his 1.3 million-strong NATO member nation, which borders Russia and is on track to spend 5 percent of its GDP on defence this year. “We’ll bring the war to Russia,” he says, as he calls for countries like Ukraine and Georgia to be embraced more fully into Europe lest they remain targets of Russian predation. He expresses support for the US campaign against Iran but also has some concerns about the signals being sent and the lack of clarity about objectives. He believes Trump is committed to European security if Europe accepts its share of the heavy lifting, and that Putin is ultimately more afraid of Donald Trump than he was of former Presidents Biden or Obama, but that Putin right now is “just playing with Trump” on Ukraine peace talks—indicating untapped potential in Trump’s leverage. As the world’s second largest processor of many rare earths and rare-earth batteries, Estonia can work with Australia to break China’s near-monopoly over these critical resources, he says. And seeking Australian support for a Nuremberg-style tribunal to bring accountability for Russian war crimes in Ukraine, he says shared values are central to closer cooperation.