The Branded and Gilded Life

The guy with a monopoly on women's lips!

He's known as 'Lipstick Brother' in China In a pandemic, Li Jiaqi, sold $1.9 billion in goods on the first day of Alibaba’s annual shopping festival in August 2020 He tries on various makeup products on his show, ranging from brands from top companies including Sheshiedo Co lotions and Apple Air pods - though there's no make up connection there! It's not as if he has an unusual format.  The sales are more than what some profitable retail chains in the US would sell in an entire year. He earned fame by starting off with 'lipstick marathons' - applying several brands of lipstick over several hours. Naturally, he's a Guinness Record holder for applying the largest number of lipstick options in 30 seconds! Starting off in sales at a L'Oréal store, he developed his own unique style of describing beauty products. That lead to his trying out livestreams which got progressively popular, and he built up a huge following. For the moment, he seems to have escaped the government's drive against 'effeminate men' The sheer volume of sales he generates on a single day is hard to replicate. As dialog writers in Indian films have known for long, a single popular catchphrase becomes legendary and builds recognition. Li's catchphrase is 'OMG sisters, buy this!' Now, that may not be seen as particularly creative but there's no doubt that it works. On average, he makes about $10-20 million per month. Making a personal connection with millions of women And leaving a trail of luscious, glowing and smiling lips. Which billion-dollar pool should you play in? If you haven't heard of Anker, you will. They started out making chargers for mobile phones. Now, that's not a market entrepreneurs would enter instinctively. But Steven Yang, the founder and CEO saw the long-term potential of a fragmented market that would grow steadily over time. Apple has now stopped including chargers with new phones. So has Samsung. And the EU has mandated USB-C chargers as a standard. That expands the market for third party chargers exponentially. Anker has excelled at increasing charging power while reducing the size. They bet on Gallium Nitride which keeps the size small and multiple devices can be charged at the same time. And they identified the pool they would play in. Not in mobile phones, which is close to $500 billion annually and the largest product market. The next is laptops and PCs, which is a $200 billion market. Then come the tablets which are at $60-70 billion annually. Followed by smart watches and headphones which make up a growing $40 billion market So, the markets diminish to 10% of the size of the biggest ones in just a few steps. But there are a lot of $3-5 billion dollar pools which will grow in future. That's a great way to understand where the company's strengths lie. And the options available there are truly widespread. Plus the realisation that the company's structure is built to generate revenue from the smaller growing pools, not the monolithic ones. That's the kind of clarity that helps companies and decide where they can play their best game and succeed. It gives Anker pole status in the smaller categories - and that is a great place to be. In a goldrush, sell mats Yoga is getting traction worldwide. From recommendations by doctors to expensive Yoga studios, it is growing exponentially not just in the US but China and Australia as well. One of the biggest signs of it becoming a worldwide phenomenon is the number of variations that have been invented. Superstar gurus wanted their auras to glow brighter and establish their own gravy train of followers. Like Starbucks has multiple flavours, there's now Kundalini, Hatha Yoga, Restorative Yoga and the controversial Bikram Yoga which has even got its own scandalous Netflix special. When a movement becomes a gold rush, there's another indicator of success. The growth of accessories like Yoga mats. They come in a striking array of colours, materials including thermoplastic elastomers, apart from the basic woven grass mats. But that does not align with upscale settings. So, the mats have evolved as well to meet the luxury needs of patrons, who don't want to rest their finely toned bodies on commonplace mats. As a result, the accessories market in Yoga is taking off faster than the search for salvation. Like Gucci and YSL totes being carried around, there needs to be a category appropriate brand to flash your Yoga credentials. And brands have understood that this can be milked for a couple of decades, at least. The Yoga mat market is projected to grow to $17 billion worldwide by 2025. Even while proponents and disciples stretch, swivel and contort gracefully, it becomes another thing to talk about on the cocktail and fitness circuit. The flavour of Yoga, the pedigree of the teacher and the branch of Yoga being practiced. The pursuit of calm has become a mint! Thanks for reading The Branded and Gilded Life ! Subscribe to receive new posts and support my work. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ideascape.substack.com [https://ideascape.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Will Priyanka Chopra speak Mandarin?

Or Korean, for that matter. Or even Russian. The evolution of subtitles and dubbing in films is going in unpredictable directions. Streaming services are running into problems with respect to dubbing and generating subtitles in multiple languages. One runaway hit can change equations. The Squid Game on Netflix was watched worldwide by audiences who didn't know a word of Korean. But Netflix found another fascinating detail hidden in the data. People preferred the dubbed version of the film in their local language instead of subtitles. Makes sense because for some, subtitles are a distraction. The problem is how this can be achieved [https://www.axios.com/artificial-intelligence-voice-dubbing-synthetic-14bfb3c6-99db-4406-920d-91b37d00a99a.html]. Here comes AI to the rescue. A company called Veritone has access to petabytes of data from media libraries. That is being used to create a synthetic version of a familiar voice speaking a different language, keeping the same tone and emotion. Nvidia is developing the technology to move lips of the characters to match the audio. Right now, it is being used in short duration projects like advertisements to get the technology going and iron out the creases. But in a few years or a decade, we'll probably have actors whose versions of their hits will have them speaking foreign languages as well. Even if they don't have a clue as to what they're saying. The translators and subtitling industries may become collateral damage, But imagine stars who are truly cross border, speaking any language with perfect intonation and emotion. Now that could create the first global superstar! Rethinking QWERTY It has resisted everything. The so-called 'inefficient' placement of keys was the original design mapped to make typing slow. Created specifically so that they keys did not jam up in the manual typewriter. Fast forward to the computer and innumerable placement options have been tried without success. Keyboard design has remained, or at least imitates the original layout of keys. The T9 that briefly dominated mobile phones in the early days of cell phones did not lead to a long-term change. Even the 'soft' version on smartphones stays true to the original. Why has this layout triumphed? One of the reasons is that early laptops may not have wanted to change a design people were familiar with. Navigating a new paradigm was complex enough. That's why Chara Corder [https://www.charachorder.com/] is a complete rejection of the original keypad layout. Like a gaming keyboard, each of your finger’s rest on a set of keys. It is supposed to make typing stupendously faster [https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/52483/6-non-qwerty-keyboard-layouts], once you master the basics. The switches detect finger movement in 3D rather than along a single dimension. It also looks completely unlike any keyboard you've seen so far. Each of the keys can be programmed to operate four or more functions. It looks fiendishly complex but apparently has found a sizeable audience willing to take the time to master it. And once you do, they promise that you can type as fast as you can think. It has been breaking all kinds of speed records. Sites like Monkeytype have banned Chara Chord because the speeds are completely off the charts. Maybe QWERTY has finally met its match. The shark discovers a whale of an opportunity Mark Cuban is recognized more for his appearances on Shark Tank rather than his ownership of Dallas Mavericks, a major baseball team. But his latest venture could impact more than sport. He's waded into an area where health, politics and policy intersect. Setting up an online pharmacy for generics. The high prices of medicines in the US is an intractable problem. People with chronic conditions end up paying a fortune every month, just to get by. There are currently about 100 drugs on the website [https://costplusdrugs.com/] and the price differences are revealing.  The difference is as much as 90%. For a month's supply of Imatinib, the branded drug costs almost $10,000 dollars. He is supplying it for less than $50. Now that puts him into a major confrontation with the whole ecosystem [https://www.pharmapproach.com/15-astonishing-statistics-and-facts-about-u-s-pharmaceutical-industry]. The patients are all going to be on his side because it directly impacts their lives and well-being. And by cutting out insurance companies from the mix, he's removed one of the key pillars that govern the healthcare business models. The battle could redefine how the entire health industry works. There are billions, if not trillions of dollars at stake. And if the drug companies and hospitals are impacted, there will be repercussions. Mark Cuban knows what he's letting himself in for. He's opted to go against companies with deep pockets who will see this as an existential threat. Until now, there hasn't been a coordinated effort to cut prices across the spectrum. The loyalty of patients is guaranteed. The US pharmaceutical market is the largest in the world at nearly $500 billion. And that's what Mark Cuban is taking a hacksaw to. Thanks for reading The Branded and Gilded Life ! Subscribe to receive new posts and support my work. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ideascape.substack.com [https://ideascape.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

A skeleton you can wear

It started off as a way of getting paralyzed people to walk. Now, it has evolved into military, healthcare and industrial solutions. The basic idea is to enhance human capacity for walking, carrying weights or doing repetitive tasks. The Exoskeleton will probably transform more industries [https://eksobionics.com/] in future than robotics alone. The number of applications being simultaneously worked on is staggering. Helping soldiers manage everything from long tiring treks over harsh terrain to reducing joint strains and fatigue. The same holds true in warehouses and manufacturing lines where the exoskeletons help workers lift massive weights on the assembly line, or manage delicate tasks which require limbs to be held aloft for long. It reduces back strain by providing support even while the person is standing straight. Robotics built into the suit work in tandem with the wearer and the result is fewer industrial accidents and prevention of long-term damage to muscles. It's early days but there is a definite advantage to making people superhuman rather than have robots develop human capabilities. That difference in perspective is helping to change what assembly lines look like and function - the idea is to make people manage working heavy tools and at dangerous heights easier. Over time, as costs drop, they will become a common sight at manufacturing facilities worldwide. Right now, the costs are quite high because the solutions are in an early stage of development. But looking ahead, in everything from helping paralyzed people get around to long army marches and building new efficiencies on assembly lines, exoskeletons will become commonplace. Wearable skeletons are the idea we didn't know we needed. Corporate bonds you can eat Paul & Mike make chocolates. World-class stuff. Their chocolate concoctions win prizes at global competitions. They have also demonstrated their ability to think differently when it comes to raising money. Anyone who has ordered online from them in the past would have got a message asking whether they wanted to subscribe to 'chocolate bonds' The offer is this. Any customer (up to the first 500) can invest Rs. 5000 in the company. In return, they will get chocolates worth Rs. 6500 over one year. Basically, the interest component is paid out in extra chocolates [https://www.paulandmike.co/products/choco-bond]. This will be in force for one year from the date of investment. Since the chocolates cost anywhere from Rs.250 to Rs 375 for a single slab, it means that customers can order what they like for Rs.6500, not including shipping costs and taxes. They have also been upfront about the way the money will be used - to fund the upgradation of their facilities. Now, this is a way of ensuring loyalty with an upfront payment - and for customers who are sold on the brand, an investment in pleasure. The company gets the funding practically for free. The payout is only in the product itself and that means their profit margins may only have to take a small hit. For a short while on a fraction of the customer base. Paul & Mike have also tied up supplies to these customers for the next 12 months. Now that's called predictable sales figures. And while it is small at the moment, they can go on to increase this over time. From the comments on the site, it looks like their customers are well and truly sold on the idea. The simple brilliance of Wordle The man who created the game is Josh Wardle. So, there's a bit of serendipity right there, apart from the fact that 'word' in the name already lets you know what you're getting into. There are numerous word games on the net. So why did this one take off spectacularly? Here are a few pointers [https://slate.com/culture/2022/01/wordle-game-creator-wardle-twitter-scores-strategy-stats.html]. First of all, five letter words are easy but not super easy. The UI is crisp. Six rows of five squares, with the keyboard at the bottom. The second are the rules. You guess full words, not one letter at a time. You know the difference between letters in the target word and the ones that are wrongly placed. And the ones that are not there in the word at all. Progress is measurable. Plus, the same colours are reflected on the keyboard, visually helping you focus on guessing options. The third is rationing. There's only one game a day. Scarcity creates habit, not overload. The fourth is sharing - the people who have guessed the word in 3 tries want the world to know - without spoiling the fun for others. The grid is a great way to evoke intrigue and show off. Hordes of people have been drawn into the game because they wanted to know what these green graphic squares meant. And once they arrived at the site, they would certainly attempt it at least once. The fifth is that it is free. But that's the least important aspect of the game. Wordle would not have succeeded without thinking through the entire experience of gameplay. Once you get into it, you're guaranteed to spend a few minutes every day. Attention alternates between frustration and triumph - and that's the cherry on the sundae! Thanks for reading The Branded and Gilded Life ! Subscribe to receive new posts and support my work. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ideascape.substack.com [https://ideascape.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Canon's genuine 'counterfeit' toner

The tweet set off [https://twitter.com/naderman/status/1479529888977760258] a firestorm. Imagine printers not being able to recognise a company's cartridges! We have all grown used to the cat and mouse games that printer manufacturers play. Replace all the four-color cartridges even though only one of them is drained. Having to waste expensive toners because all the cartridges don't get empty at the same time. Users try and find workarounds or cheaper solutions. Companies find ways to block them.  And even though there are entrepreneurs who try to establish a market in the replacement market, they find it hard to succeed or scale. So, it seems like poetic justice when companies have to deal with systems flagging  genuine cartridges as counterfeits! This is the problem. A semiconductor chip was the one blocking duplicate cartridges from being installed. The moment the printer came on, it would check if the cartridge was from the company and if it wasn't, the printer would no longer work. Now that there is a chip shortage, the cartridges are being shipped without them. And there is no way to differentiate. And Canon admits that the toner levels cannot be detected. Here's the formal statement [https://www.canon-europe.com/support/business-product-support/interim-toner/] from the company: Due to the ongoing global shortage of semiconductor components, Canon is currently experiencing challenges in procuring specific electronic components that are used in our consumable products for our multifunction printers (MFP). These components perform such functions as detecting remaining toner levels. Look for the 'counterfeit' market to be rubbing their hands gleefully while the shortage persists. Getting rid of homelessness As economies rise and fall, the hardest hit are people rendered homeless. It could be for a variety of reasons. Traditionally, the solution has been to provide temporary rooms or dormitories. That creates another layer of management and oversight - and any funds allocated to these options gets lost in the maze of government spending. It's also a sticky issue politically - the homeless living on the margins have to use all their wits to merely get through a day and they're political footballs passed around from one constituency to the next one. Finland is simply giving people homes - no questions asked. What takes on added urgency is that temperatures in winter drop to -20 degrees and being out in the open means that even survival is in doubt. While the population is nowhere near as large as some of the developing countries, it is still a tall order to provide a home when necessary. But the effect has been remarkable. The first goal was to create 2500 homes, but they went up to 3,500. The number of long-term homeless people has dropped by 35% and there is only one 50 bed shelter that remains from the earlier network. It's not just space to live - the government follows up with support services like education, training and work placement help. Apart from teaching people to cook and clean the homes. It may not be the solution that every country can implement but it may be a far better way of solving the problem than anything available today. The question is, will every country be able to afford it? 5G runs into an air pocket In most cases, the rollout of a new generation of telecom technology is a highly anticipated event. However, in the US, the launch of 5G has run into a major problem. The FAA has warned [https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/faa-statements-5g] of 'catastrophic disruption' at airports. Apparently, 5G interferes with sensitive altimeters inside aircraft. And for planes coming into land in bad weather or poor visibility, it's a dangerous problem to deal with. As the wireless spectrum gets more expensive and crowded, we'll face more of these issues. Technology has to keep pace [https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/01/20/business/stock-market-economy-news/despite-a-deal-to-restrict-5g-service-near-airports-the-fight-is-not-over] with spectrum requirements from communication and broadband companies to military and aviation needs. For telecom companies, the investments they have sunk into purchasing spectrum and upgrading customers will take longer to recover. For airlines, it impacts bottomlines when flights have to be canceled owing to 5G problems. Some of the disruption is already evident. Air India and Emirates have canceled some of their schedules to the US. Now comes the painful part. FAA will have to draw up guidelines for telecom companies to follow. The antenna cannot point upward, for example. And that could have an impact on coverage. At the same time, it will have to test altimeters and see which models from airplanes are safe to fly in adverse conditions. Since telecom spectrum is auctioned differently in other countries, they have not faced the problems yet. There's no doubt, however, that technology cannot be permanently in expansion mode. The scarcity will no doubt lead to technical innovation and breakthroughs. But these are air pockets few anticipated. And the 5G rollout in the US is in for quite a bit of turbulence. Thanks for reading The Branded and Gilded Life ! Subscribe to receive new posts and support my work. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ideascape.substack.com [https://ideascape.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Conversations are anything but simple

Chatbots have to simulate human conversations. And we think they're free flowing, the way dialogue is delivered in movies. In real life, they are halting, awkward and filled with long pauses. Even between friends and colleagues, conversations dry up after the common subjects are exhausted or one of the people conversing loses interest. There's a lot of 'ummm..', eh.....' and clearing of throats, apart from the same thoughts going around in circles. At parties and networking events, people play out introductions and opening lines in their minds before actually speaking. Trying to sound friendly, knowledgeable as well as intelligent. It's a hard act to keep up. There are times when you know you aren't getting across to the person you are speaking with. So, why do we assume that chatbots will be able to simulate human conversations without difficulty? They may go through machine learning on millions of conversations and then reconstruct them for certain contexts. But how people think and what they say is still unpredictable. No machine can come up with all the branches of a conversation that humans explore in unstructured ways. Flitting from one subject to another. Starting off at random points and leaving things unsaid midway. Intense exchanges followed by contemplation and thought. Plus, no chatbot initiates conversations. It waits for you to ask the question to hopefully provide answers. Even the most advanced program [https://mindmatters.ai/2022/01/will-chatbots-replace-the-art-of-human-conversation/] stumbles. But then, so do humans! The yoga in power storage Compress. Decompress. Compress. Decompress. The idea has been around for decades. Compress air into underground caverns and decompress when required to release energy. The problem with managing electricity is that it has to be transmitted and distributed as soon as it is generated. Storage was not given the recognition [https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/long-duration-energy-storage/goldman-sachs-just-made-a-record-setting-investment-in-long-duration-energy-storage] it deserved. Now, wind and solar power generation have improved dramatically - but they're still unpredictable and the power generated needs to be stored, so that it can be supplied to the grid during lean times or when demand hits new peaks. Hydrostor, a Canadian company has breathed new life into the storage idea. Using electricity, a fixed amount of water is run through a complex system of pipes to compress air stored deep within the ground. When required, the water is pushed back through decompression and that generates electricity. Several versions of the idea being tried out across the world, including in India but that's more on the lines of a closed loop power generation system. This one focuses on compressed air generating power to be fed back to the grid. They have built a 2-10MW hour project as proof of concept and it is already generating profits. Goldman Sachs has invested $250 million into the company. The potential for energy storage is massive as the electricity market shifts to 'power on demand'. Optimizing that is only possible by building storage solutions that can tide over situations of alternating scarcity and excess. Like yoga calms the human system through a series of breathing techniques, Hydrostor may be the answer to what future power markets need. Deep storage. VR programming for cows Cows don't need multiple entertainment options. Or role-playing games filled with fast-paced action. All they require is immersion in a pasture. In today's confined spaces, letting them out to graze is not an option. They're lined up next to each other and even the space to move is limited. A Turkish farmer came up with the idea of using a VR headset on a cow. Imported from Russia, it puts the cow in a completely outdoor environment. It does make a difference apparently - milk production is up and the cows seem happier. There are a few tricky questions that come up. When the cow sees grass and attempts to eat it, what happens? Has the farmer placed fodder in the right place, so when the cow goes for it, the assumption is that it is eating fresh grass? Humans are harder to convince. They are far more finicky about the environment and have suggestions as well as ideas on the kind of environments they would like to immerse themselves in. But cows have no such problem. Put them into a VR headset makes them believe they are out in the pasture. They don't need a change of scene or anything more exciting - what can they get anyway? Maybe they will simulate calves to nuzzle close when they tire of this, or when milk production goes down. And will there be resistance when VR headsets are removed at the end of the day? As far as cows are concerned, the metaverse is already here! Thanks for reading The Branded and Gilded Life ! Subscribe to receive new posts and support my work. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ideascape.substack.com [https://ideascape.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]