The Energy Desk

Iran Blockade, UAE’s OPEC Exit, and Product Supply Math

Alex Melvin and Mohit Arora cover what has changed across the crude complex since late March. They walk through the U.S. shift from kinetic operations to an indefinite ceasefire and economic blockade against Iran, with Iranian storage now close to saturation and Kharg Island showing no loadings on satellite. The conversation also covers the UAE's May 1 exit from OPEC and its plan to roughly double Fujairah pipeline capacity, part of a broader regional move to build export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Alex and Mohit close on why this is primarily a refined-products story rather than a crude one — with gasoline, jet, and distillate inventories swinging from the top of their seasonal ranges to the bottom — alongside demand destruction, market-structure shifts, and the downside risks that have drawn less attention. For deeper coverage of the topics discussed in this episode, Mobius publishes ongoing research and market analysis at mobiusriskgroup.com [http://mobiusriskgroup.com]. If you have questions specific to your portfolio or hedging position, reach out directly — the team is available to discuss at podcast@mobiusriskgroup.com [podcast@mobiusriskgroup.com]. The Energy Desk is a podcast from Mobius Risk Group. Follow the show wherever you get your podcasts.

Signal and Noise

Recorded Monday, March 30, Mohit and Alex cover where the Middle East supply disruption stands four weeks in — separating what the underlying data shows from the figures circulating in media coverage. Regional production curtailments are running between 8 and 10 million barrels per day, with Iraq and Kuwait bearing the largest share. Saudi Arabia has rerouted exports to Red Sea terminals via the East-West pipeline and is now operating near capacity there. Tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz have continued, with vessels transiting dark — AIS transponders off — and Iran granting passage to ships affiliated with non-hostile countries. Japan, China, and India together accounted for roughly two-thirds of Strait flows through 2025 and have been among the first to resume transits. On pricing, the episode covers why the market response has been more measured than some historical supply disruptions might suggest — global inventory positions entering 2026 were considerably more comfortable than they were ahead of the Russia disruption in 2022. Diesel crack spreads — which measure refining margins — have moved into demand destruction territory, and that pressure is beginning to register at the pump and in Asian jet fuel markets. The Brent-WTI spread has also widened, reflecting how geopolitical risk concentrates in waterborne crude benchmarks while WTI's landlocked characteristics give it a different risk profile. The episode closes on resolution scenarios and what a ceasefire or diplomatic framework could mean for the forward curve — including a consortium-based Strait management structure, modeled on the Suez Canal, as one candidate path — and why the supply landscape at the end of this conflict will look considerably different from the one that preceded it. For deeper coverage of the topics discussed in this episode [www.mobiusriskgroup.com/podcast/signal-and-noise], Mobius publishes ongoing research and market analysis at mobiusriskgroup.com [http://mobiusriskgroup.com]. If you have questions specific to your portfolio or hedging position, reach out directly — the team is available to discuss at podcast@mobiusriskgroup.com [podcast@mobiusriskgroup.com]. The Energy Desk is a podcast from Mobius Risk Group. Follow the show wherever you get your podcasts.

Cracks, Crude, Water, Food

Recorded Wednesday, March 4, as U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran were still unfolding — Mohit and Alex break down the market dynamics and what it means for participants across the sector. The immediate pressure point is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint. When insurers pulled coverage for vessels transiting the region, tanker traffic dropped sharply — effectively stalling a significant share of global oil supply. Iraq compounded the disruption by curtailing production and halting a key pipeline export route. Crude benchmarks spiked to start the week before stabilizing Wednesday, after the Trump administration announced an insurance backstop and potential naval escorts through the Strait. The conversation also covers product markets — specifically diesel. They also cover what could reverse this move: sanctioned barrels already on the water, China sitting on substantial onshore inventories, a larger-than-expected OPEC increase, and Kazakhstan supply coming back online. A market that flipped from net short to net long in days could see a sharp reversal if the geopolitical situation de-escalates. ---------------------------------------- Watch or listen at MobiusRiskGroup.com [www.mobiusriskgroup.com/podcast/cracks-crude-water-food] 📧 Questions or want to talk through what this means for your portfolio: podcast@mobiusriskgroup.com [podcast@mobiusriskgroup.com] This commentary reflects the views of Mobius Risk Group and is for informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Iran: Deal or Disruption?

Listen or watch this episode on your preferred podcast platform or on the Mobius website here. [www.mobiusriskgroup.com/podcast/iran-deal-or-disruption] Episode Summary: In this episode of The Energy Desk, Mohit Arora and Alex Melvin break down the evolving geopolitical landscape between the United States and Iran and its significant impact on global energy markets. They dig into the fundamental trends shaping crude oil prices, from supply and demand dynamics to the influence of speculative trading. The hosts also analyze the potential for future conflict and the implications for regional stability and energy flows. Key Topics Discussed: * US-Iran Relations: The episode provides a detailed overview of the current state of US-Iran relations, including the ongoing nuclear negotiations and the potential for a new agreement. The hosts discuss the various factors influencing the talks, from Iran's enrichment activities to the role of regional proxies. * Energy Market Impact: The podcast explores the significant impact of the US-Iran tensions on the energy markets. The hosts analyze the recent price movements in crude oil, the backwardation in the futures curve, and the surge in call option buying as traders hedge against potential disruptions. * Supply and Demand Fundamentals: The episode examines the global supply and demand picture, including the role of OPEC+ production cuts, the release of strategic petroleum reserves, and the impact of sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil exports. The hosts also discuss the state of global inventories and the outlook for the coming months. * The Board of Peace Event: The podcast references President Trump's remarks at the Board of Peace event, where he discussed Iran's role in regional stability and the prospects for a new deal. The hosts analyze the President's comments and their potential implications for the ongoing negotiations. * Investment Opportunities: The episode concludes with a discussion of potential investment opportunities in the current market environment. The hosts highlight the attractiveness of call options and other strategies for hedging against upside price risk. References: [1] The White House. (2026, February 19). President Trump Participates in the Board of Peace Event [Video]. The White House. [https://www.whitehouse.gov/videos/president-trump-participates-in-the-board-of-peace-event/]

Tokenizing WTI with Wil Harris, Energy Substantiation

Listen or watch this episode on your preferred podcast platform or on the Mobius Website here [www.mobiusriskgroup.com/podcast/tokenizing-wti-with-wil-harris-energy-substantiation]. In this episode of The Energy Desk, [www.mobiusriskgroup.com/podcast/] host Alex Melvin is joined by Wil Harris of Energy Substantiation [https://www.energysubstantiation.com/] to discuss energy commodity tokenization. Wil explains how his company, EnSub, is pioneering this space with the launch of WTI Coin, a digital token backed one-to-one by physical crude oil. They explore the significance of the Genius Act, a key piece of bipartisan legislation that has established a regulatory path for such innovations in the United States. The conversation highlights the dual advantages of this new model. For investors, tokenization offers a simplified, more direct form of exposure to oil as a macro asset—what Wil calls "better beta"—free from the complexities and costs of the futures market. For producers, it presents a unique opportunity to unlock the value of their flowing inventory, turning barrels in pipelines and storage into a source of low-cost working capital. Wil provides a detailed look into how Energy Substation is making this possible, ensuring the financial integrity and fungibility of the tokenized assets. The discussion also touches on the company's future plans, including the upcoming launch of a natural gas token and the potential drivers for its adoption, such as the massive energy consumption of the burgeoning AI and data center industries. TIMESTAMPS 00:00 - Introduction to the concept of a tokenized oil asset. 01:26 - Welcoming Wil Harris and introducing Energy Substantiation and the concept of WTI Coin. 03:17 - Discussion of the Genius Act and its importance for tokenization. 06:32 - The concept of "walmartization" of the oil and gas industry for investors. 09:21 - The technical side of tokenizing flowing commodities. 12:56 - The scale of the opportunity and the vision for a "bank of oil." 14:28 - How producers can benefit from tokenizing their supply. 17:00 - Plans for a natural gas token and its link to data centers. 19:38 - How different crude qualities are handled in the tokenization process. 22:12 - Next steps for Energy Substation and how to get involved. 24:01 - Closing remarks and podcast outro. Resources * Connect with Wil Harris on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/wil-harris-057a672/] * Explore EnergySubstantiation.com [https://www.energysubstantiation.com/]