The Focus

The End of the Post-Cold War Order? | Andrew Michta

For decades, the West operated under a simple assumption: American power would underpin global stability indefinitely. But today, that assumption is under growing pressure. In this episode of The Focus Podcast, John Bruni speaks with Andrew A. Michta about the future of NATO, Europe’s rapid rearmament, the wars in Ukraine and Iran, the limits of American power, and whether the post-Cold War order is beginning to fracture before our eyes. Show Notes: In this episode of The Focus Podcast, John Bruni speaks with Andrew A. Michta about the future of NATO, Europe’s rearmament, the wars in Ukraine and Iran, and whether the era of uncontested American power is beginning to fracture under the pressure of simultaneous global crises. About Andrew A. Michta Andrew A. Michta is Professor of Strategic Studies at the Hamilton School at the University of Florida and a Nonresident Senior Fellow with the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the  Atlantic Council. He is one of America’s leading strategic thinkers on NATO, European security, Russia, and great-power competition.  Recent Publications & Commentary by Andrew A. Michta 👉🏻“Russia Is the Big Winner in the Iran War” —  19FortyFive Author Page 👉🏻“Why Putin Believes He Can Win His ‘Civilizational War’ Against the West” —  19FortyFive Author Page 👉🏻“Donald Trump’s Russia Strategy Could End NATO as We Know It” —  19FortyFive Author Page See omnystudio.com/listener [https://omnystudio.com/listener] for privacy information.

The Carney Moment: A Post-American World?

What happens when middle powers stop trusting the old global order? In this episode of The Focus, host John Bruni speaks with Kishore Mahbubani — one of the world’s leading geopolitical thinkers — about the growing fragmentation of the international system, the future of American leadership, the rise of Asia, and whether middle powers can shape the emerging global order rather than simply survive it.  Show Notes: In this episode of The Focus, Kishore Mahbubani — former President of the UN Security Council, veteran Singaporean diplomat, and one of Asia’s most influential geopolitical thinkers — joins John Bruni to discuss the accelerating transformation of the global order. Topics include: The “Carney Moment” and the rise of middle powers Whether Western dominance is fading Strategic autonomy in an age of interdependence U.S.-China rivalry and the future of the Indo-Pacific Whether allies still trust the old international system Australia’s strategic dilemma between Washington and Beijing Can middle powers genuinely shape the future — or are they merely surviving it? Prof. Mahbubani brings decades of diplomatic experience and strategic insight to one of the defining questions of the 21st century: Is the old order breaking down faster than a new one can emerge? Prof. Kishore Mahbubani’s latest books: Can Asians Think of Peace? (2025)  Living the Asian Century: An Undiplomatic Memoir (2024)  The Asian 21st Century (2022)  Follow The Focus Podcast for more conversations on geopolitics, defence, strategy, and global affairs. See omnystudio.com/listener [https://omnystudio.com/listener] for privacy information.

Scott Lucas | The World Trump Made

Is the United States still the stabilising force of the international system — or has it become part of the instability? In our first episode back, Professor Scott Lucas joins John Bruni to unpack the Iran War, the growing global energy crisis, NATO’s deepening anxiety, and whether Trump-era America has entered a state of permanent political and strategic turbulence. From the Strait of Hormuz to Washington itself, this is a hard conversation about power, disorder, and whether the world’s superpower is now accelerating the very chaos it once contained. Show Notes: After a period away due to medical leave, John Bruni returns to The Focus for a major conversation on the state of the international system — and the growing instability surrounding the United States itself. Joining us is Professor Scott Lucas from the Clinton Institute in Dublin, one of the most respected analysts of American politics and international affairs. Together, they examine whether the United States is still acting as the stabilising force of the global order — or whether internal political turmoil, strategic overreach, and the Trump presidency are now contributing to international instability. Topics include: The Iran War and risks of wider U.S. escalation Strait of Hormuz tensions and global energy insecurity “World War E” — energy as the new geopolitical battlespace Concerns over American reliability Trump, executive power, and institutional strain Scott’s presence on socials: X: @ScottLucas_EA Bluesky: @scottlucas.bysky.social Instagram: scottlucasworldview Web: https://eaworldview.com/  See omnystudio.com/listener [https://omnystudio.com/listener] for privacy information.

Australia’s Political Reset

George Mamalis joins us for a deep dive into South Australia, political power, and the future of the Australian system. Australia’s political landscape is shifting — and not just in South Australia. In this episode of The Focus, we explore the deeper forces reshaping politics across the country. Dr. John Bruni sits down with George-Alexander Mamalis — political commentator and host of The Adelaide Set — for a wide-ranging discussion on the changing nature of Australian politics. While the conversation begins with the upcoming South Australian election, it quickly expands into a broader analysis of the structural, cultural, and philosophical shifts shaping modern democracy. We examine: The dominance — and limitations — of the Labor–Liberal political system The role of leadership personality versus policy The growing country–city divide in Australia The rise of outsider political movements, including Turning Point Australia Power networks and influence, including “The Adelaide Set” The impact of global ideas and emerging debates — including transhumanism — on political discourse This is not just a conversation about South Australia — it is a discussion about where Australian politics is heading, and what that means in a rapidly changing world. Call to Action: Before you go — drop a comment below and let us know two things: where you're watching from, and whether you think politics today is about ideas… or personalities. Show Notes: 🔖 About the Guest George-Alexander Mamalis is a political commentator based in South Australia and the host of The Adelaide Set, where he explores political, cultural, and societal issues shaping contemporary Australia. If you want to know more about George, head to his YouTube Channel, George Mamalis, which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/@georgiemamalis  🎙️ About the Host Dr. John Bruni is a geopolitical analyst and CEO of SAGE International Australia, and host of The Focus Podcast, where he engages with leading thinkers and practitioners on global affairs, defence, and geopolitics. See omnystudio.com/listener [https://omnystudio.com/listener] for privacy information.

World War E

Two wars are raging in the world right now: Ukraine and Iran. Both are, at their core, energy wars. Modern economies depend on cheap and reliable supplies of oil and gas. But what happens when war disrupts access to energy in not just one, but two of the world’s most critical regions at the same time? The Ukraine war has already reshaped Europe’s energy landscape. Now escalating conflict involving Iran is placing the wider Middle East — the heart of the global energy system — under growing strain. We may not be witnessing World War III. But we may be entering something else: World War E — the global energy war. Show Notes: Topics Covered • The strategic intersection between the Iran war and the Ukraine war • Whether energy pressure could weaken European support for Ukraine • The damage to Russian oil and gas infrastructure and whether Moscow could restore exports quickly • The implications of Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure • Reports of possible Russia–Iran military cooperation • Whether renewable energy can realistically close emerging energy gaps • The future of European energy security Explainer: What Does “Force Majeure” Mean in LNG Markets? A force majeure declaration is a legal term used in international contracts when extraordinary events prevent a company from fulfilling its obligations. In the context of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, it typically means that the supplier is temporarily unable to deliver contracted shipments due to circumstances beyond its control, such as: • war or military conflict • major infrastructure damage • natural disasters • government intervention or sanctions When a supplier declares force majeure, it signals to buyers that contractual delivery obligations may be suspended or reduced without financial penalties. For global energy markets, such declarations are extremely significant. Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, supplying major markets across Europe and Asia. Any sustained disruption to Qatari LNG exports tightens global gas supply and can drive prices sharply higher. In a world still heavily dependent on hydrocarbons, disruptions in the Gulf can rapidly translate into economic pressure far beyond the Middle East. Guest Anders Puck Nielsen is a naval officer and military analyst at the Royal Danish Defence College. His work focuses on maritime strategy, naval warfare, and contemporary security challenges, including the war in Ukraine and Russia’s military strategy. He also runs a widely followed YouTube channel explaining military and geopolitical developments. Subscribe to The Focus For more conversations with leading experts on geopolitics, defence, and global security: 👍 Like the video 💬 Share your thoughts in the comments 🔔 Subscribe for future episodes See omnystudio.com/listener [https://omnystudio.com/listener] for privacy information.