The Knowledge Project

Charlie Munger: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment [Outliers]

Charlie Munger spent his life studying one question: why do smart people make bad decisions? In his legendary talk The Psychology of Human Misjudgement, Munger outlined 25 psychological tendencies that quietly distort how we think. From incentives and social proof to denial, envy, and authority bias, you’ll learn how these hidden tendencies shape behavior and how to build the mental defenses that helped Munger create one of the best decision records in history. You’ll hear practical examples, powerful antidotes, and lessons you can apply to business, investing, and everyday life. ----- Chapters: (00:00) Introduction: (01:38) Pattern #1: Reward and Punishment Superresponse Tendency (05:00) Pattern #2: Liking/Loving Tendency (08:38) Pattern #3: Disliking/Hating Tendency (11:48) Pattern #4: Doubt-Avoidance Tendency (14:19) Pattern #5: Inconsistency-Avoidance Tendency (20:08) Pattern #6: Curiosity Tendency (21:30) Pattern #7: Kantian Fairness Tendency (23:32) Pattern #8: Envy/Jealousy Tendency (27:32) Pattern #9: Reciprocation Tendency (31:52) Pattern #10: Influence-from-Mere-Association Tendency (35:43) Pattern #11: Simple, Pain-Avoiding Psychological Denial (37:53) Pattern #12: Excessive Self-Regard Tendency (41:06) Pattern #13: Overoptimism Tendency (42:11) Pattern #14: Deprival-Superreaction Tendency (45:28) Pattern #15: Social-Proof Tendency (48:56) Pattern #16: Contrast-Misreaction Tendency (51:33) Pattern #17: Stress-Influence Tendency (54:20) Pattern #18: Availability-Misweighing Tendency (54:54) Pattern #19: Use-It-or-Lose-It Tendency (56:26) Pattern #20: Drug-Misinfluence Tendency (57:23) Pattern #21: Senescence-Misinfluence Tendency (58:42) Pattern #22: Authority-Misinfluence Tendency (01:01:58) Pattern #23: Twaddle Tendency (01:04:18) Pattern #24: Reason-Respecting Tendency (01:06:42) Pattern #25: Lollapalooza Tendency (01:10:28) Epilogue ----- I published the full updated version on fs.blog [https://fs.blog/great-talks/psychology-human-misjudgment/] with his permission, we are the only website to my knowledge that had his personal permission to post it. ----- Upgrade: Get hand-edited transcripts and an ad-free experience, and so much more. Learn more @ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://fs.blog/membership/] ------ Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. See what you're missing: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://fs.blog/newsletter/] ------ Follow Shane Parrish X ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@ShaneAParrish⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://x.com/ShaneAParrish] Insta ⁠@farnamstreet⁠ [https://www.instagram.com/farnamstreet/?hl=en] LinkedIn ⁠Shane Parrish [https://www.linkedin.com/in/shane-parrish-050a2183/] ------ This episode is for informational purposes only. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

The Brutal Truth About Success No One Talks About | Panera Founder Ron Shaich

Restauranteur Ron Shaich reveals how he built the fast casual industry, scale a business, and spot the trends before they happen. Ron Shaich is an entrepreneur and investor. He was the founder and former CEO of Panera Bread and Au Bon Pain, generating 25% annualized returns and helping define the fast casual restaurant segment. Now he's the chairman of CAVA (NYSE: CAVA). He is the author of Know What Matters. He explains - The origins of Au Bon Pain and Panera - What you should focus on and what you should avoid - What most people get wrong about growing a business - Why the best always seek out the details - How to use your obsession to your advantage ----- Upgrade: Get a hand edited transcripts and ad free experiences along with my thoughts and reflections at the end of every conversation. Learn more @ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://fs.blog/membership/] ------ Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://fs.blog/newsletter/] ------ Follow Shane Parrish: X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/shaneparrish Insta: https://www.instagram.com/farnamstreet/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/shane-parrish-050a2183/ Thank you to the sponsors for this episode: reMarkable: Get your paper tablet at https://www.reMarkable.com today .tech domains: Nothing says tech like being on .tech https://get.tech/ Shopify: https://shopify.com/knowledgeproject Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Steve Wozniak: The Engineer Who Built Apple [Outliers]

Steve Wozniak is the engineer who built Apple. Then he did something Silicon Valley still doesn't understand: he gave millions of his own money away to early employees, walked away from power, and refused to play the game everyone else was playing. While HP rejected his design and competitors built walled gardens, Wozniak's philosophy of open architecture, the very one a young Steve Jobs fought against, is what saved Apple long enough for it to become Apple. This is the story of the reluctant founder who won by refusing to compromise, and a blueprint for success without selling your soul. ----- Chapters: (00:00) Introduction (01:31) Part 1: Pranks and Paper Computers (18:11) Part 2: The First Personal Computer (30:46) Part 3: Apple Computer Corporation (41:02) Part 4: Apple's Decline (46:02) Epilogue (48:02) Rules To Live By ----- Upgrade: Get hand-edited transcripts and an ad-free experience, and so much more. Learn more @ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://fs.blog/membership/] ------ Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. See what you're missing: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://fs.blog/newsletter/] ------ Follow Shane Parrish X ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@ShaneAParrish⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://x.com/ShaneAParrish] Insta ⁠@farnamstreet⁠ [https://www.instagram.com/farnamstreet/?hl=en] LinkedIn ⁠Shane Parrish [https://www.linkedin.com/in/shane-parrish-050a2183/] ------ This episode is for informational purposes only. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

Anthony Scilipoti is one of the sharpest minds in investing. He's the President and CEO of Veritas Group of Companies. He called the collapses of both Valeant Pharmaceuticals and Nortel before they happened, and now he has some thoughts on AI. We talk about asking better questions, reading the fine print, the role of short selling, and what it means to be wrong. We explore why AI gives you information but not insight, why cheap risk is often the most expensive, and why nothing matters until it does. It's a conversation about the difference between seeing and understanding and the discipline to notice what everyone else ignores. This episode is not investment advice. It’s time to listen and learn. ----- About Anthony Anthony Scilipoti is one of the sharpest minds in investing. He's the President and CEO of Veritas Group of Companies. ----- Approximate Chapters: (00:00) Introduction (01:26) Early Career (02:53) The Enron Scandal (05:48) Lessons on Auditing (16:12) The AI 'Bubble' and the State of the Market (18:46) Ad Break (20:50) The AI 'Bubble' and the State of the Market (Cont.) (28:12) Parallels Between the Fall of Nortel Networks and the Current AI Economy (35:15) Ad Break (36:10) Parallels Between the Fall of Nortel Networks and the Current AI Economy (Cont.) (39:14) Investing Rules for Better Investments (42:14) Red Flags to Look Out for When Investing? (45:56) The Rise and Fall of Valeant Pharmaceuticals (53:04) Is a Complicated Corporate Structure Bad? (55:54) Companies Don't Start Out Being Crooked (57:53) Why is EBITDA a Disastrous Measurement? (1:00:47) How Should Investors See Stock Options / How to Account for Stock Options (1:06:30) What Incentives to Look for in a Company When Investing? (1:11:31) The Rise of Index Investing (1:15:41) Buybacks and Share Count (1:21:21) What Makes Warren Buffett a Unique Investor? (1:26:58) The Power of the Retail Investor (1:32:30) What Is Success for You? ----- Thank you to the sponsors for this episode: Basecamp: Stop struggling, start making progress. Get somewhere with Basecamp. Sign up free at http://basecamp.com/knowledgeproject reMarkable: Get your paper tablet at https://www.reMarkable.com today .tech domains: Nothing says tech like being on .tech https://get.tech/ ----- Upgrade: Get a hand edited transcripts and ad free experiences along with my thoughts and reflections at the end of every conversation. Learn more @ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://fs.blog/membership/] ------ Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://fs.blog/newsletter/] ------ Follow Shane Parrish X ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@ShaneAParrish⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://x.com/ShaneAParrish] Insta ⁠@farnamstreet⁠ [https://www.instagram.com/farnamstreet/?hl=en] LinkedIn ⁠Shane Parrish [https://www.linkedin.com/in/shane-parrish-050a2183/] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Jim Clayton: Turning Competitors’ Mistakes Into $1.7B [Outliers]

The incredible story of Jim Clayton and the counterintuitive strategies he used to build Clayton Homes into a juggernaut. When the bank forced him into bankruptcy at 27, they literally seized everything, including his accountant’s calculator. He started over and rebuilt following an unconventional playbook. He refused bad loans, vertically integrated everything, and played relentless offense during downturns. While the home industry collapsed in the 1970s, 1990s, and 2000s, Clayton stayed disciplined. Competitors chased growth with loose credit and failed. He survived every downturn and bought their pieces. When Warren Buffett read his autobiography, he called days later and paid $1.7 billion in cash. The lesson: discipline beats hype, vertical integration beats vulnerability, and recessions are buying opportunities. It’s time to listen and learn. ----- Some of the lessons in this episode: 1. If you have to swallow a frog, don’t look at it too long. 2. Choose not to participate in recessions. 3. Don’t fight the flow. 4. The best legal department is happy customers. 5. Turn your adversary into an advisor. 6. Bad loans are a virus. 7. There is profit in precision. 8. Own the ecosystem. 9. When you’re lost, trust your instruments. 10. Plant seeds, don’t chase the toy. ----- This episode was made possible by: Basecamp: https://basecamp.com/knowledgeproject [https://basecamp.com/knowledgeproject] ----- Upgrade: Get hand-edited transcripts and an ad-free experience, and so much more. Learn more @ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://fs.blog/membership/] ------ Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. See what you're missing: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://fs.blog/newsletter/] ------ Follow Shane Parrish X ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@ShaneAParrish⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://x.com/ShaneAParrish] Insta ⁠@farnamstreet⁠ [https://www.instagram.com/farnamstreet/?hl=en] LinkedIn ⁠Shane Parrish [https://www.linkedin.com/in/shane-parrish-050a2183/] ------ This episode is for informational purposes only. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]