#870: Sebastian Mallaby, Biographer of Demis Hassabis — Lessons from 100+ AI Insiders on The Race to Superintelligence, The Religion of AI, and Spotting Breakthroughs Early
Sebastian Mallaby (@scmallaby [https://x.com/scmallaby]) is the Paul A. Volcker senior fellow for international economics [https://www.cfr.org/paul-volcker-chair-international-economics] at the Council on Foreign Relations, a two-time Pulitzer Prize finalist, and the author of six books, including More Money Than God [https://www.amazon.com/More-Money-Than-God-Relations/dp/0143119419/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20], The Power Law [https://www.amazon.com/Power-Law-Venture-Capital-Making/dp/052555999X/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20], The Man Who Knew [https://www.amazon.com/Man-Who-Knew-Times-Greenspan-ebook/dp/B01CDVCAXS/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20], and The World's Banker [https://www.amazon.com/Worlds-Banker-Financial-Poverty-Relations-ebook/dp/B01MUNOYM9/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20]. His latest book is The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence [https://www.amazon.com/Infinity-Machine-Hassabis-DeepMind-Superintelligence/dp/0593831845/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20].
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Timestamps
* [00:00:00] Start.
* [00:02:11] The twinkly eyed polymath who became Sebastian's next book.
* [00:06:55] Picking the next book project the way a great VC picks a startup.
* [00:09:41] Why God keeps crashing the superintelligence party.
* [00:11:13] Shane Legg's grainy 2009 prophecy — and the nervous giggle.
* [00:13:11] Ilya Sutskever burns an effigy.
* [00:13:54] Demis at 4 a.m., hunting God's algorithm.
* [00:18:43] Super-abundance, Mad Max, and the China shock lesson.
* [00:22:39] The kitchen debate with Geoff Hinton that flipped Sebastian.
* [00:24:06] Why a zero-percent chance of doom is indefensible.
* [00:24:52] Will Washington seize the labs? The Mythos wake-up call.
* [00:27:18] Anthropic's bull case, bear case, and a dead parent's letter.
* [00:33:24] Where Sebastian and Benedict Evans part ways.
* [00:38:16] Is the SaaS apocalypse overdone? One word: Palantir.
* [00:39:53] The AI friend you'll never switch.
* [00:41:56] Does Google win consumer AI by default?
* [00:44:45] Four cities, eight days: China actually talks safety.
* [00:47:28] A Cold War non-proliferation playbook for AI.
* [00:49:45] Did the chip export controls actually work?
* [00:51:49] Burned doves: why Washington swears China won't talk.
* [00:54:56] "By 2028, the race is over" — one lab boss' bet.
* [00:59:11] Inside Hikvision: toddlers, sensors, and US sanctions.
* [01:01:07] Bill Gurley's Uber bet: venture capital perfected.
* [01:05:18] Luke Nosek bear-hugs DeepMind into existence.
* [01:10:52] Thiel's heresy: never invest by committee.
* [01:11:59] How Founders Fund nearly fumbled the deal of the century.
* [01:14:30] Selling to Google for $650M: a secret British heist?
* [01:16:41] The Traitorous Eight, gardening leave, and the UK's to-do list.
* [01:20:55] Ender's Game: "That's really how I see myself."
* [01:23:42] Too dumb for Gödel, Escher, Bach? Maybe an LLM can help.
* [01:25:19] If not Demis or Sam, then Dario.
* [01:26:04] My royalties cliff — and what dropped in late 2022.
* [01:27:47] Lila Sciences and the labs that run themselves.
* [01:31:13] Sebastian's billboard: "Prepare your mind."
* [01:35:14] The one thing Sebastian will never outsource to AI.
* [01:40:09] Parting thoughts.
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