Dwarkesh Podcast

Arthur Kroeber is a leading researcher on Chinese tech and macro, a founding partner at Gavekal Dragonomics [https://research.gavekal.com/], and author of "China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know." [https://www.amazon.com/Chinas-Economy-Everyone-Needs-Know%C2%AE/dp/0190239034] It's the most useful, detailed resource I've found of how China actually works. On this episode, we discuss how China achieved high-tech manufacturing dominance, and where they'll go from here. By Arthur’s account, the Chinese government is like a giant VC fund: they decide on key priorities and then spend hundreds of billions of dollars subsidizing ruthless competition at the local level. They are willing to lose huge amounts of money for a few of their bets to pay off: at China’s scale, effectiveness matters more than efficiency. There's also a growing bipartisan consensus that we need to combat China's rise. This doesn’t make much sense to me. China is a big, powerful country at the frontier in many fields, and its economy is intricately tied in with our own. Being instinctively adversarial is both unsustainable and risky. Arthur and I discuss how we can create a productive, mutually beneficial version of this relationship. Watch on YouTube [https://youtu.be/qb644F-iE_s]; listen on Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381?i=1000713627073] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/episode/2EXad7ZEt0oXezigqd7WLe?si=45d9402e6fce4095]. Sponsors * Scale [https://scale.com/dwarkesh] is building the infrastructure for smarter, safer AI. In addition to their Data Foundry, they recently released Scale Evaluation, a tool that diagnoses model limitations. Learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh [https://scale.com/dwarkesh]. * WorkOS Radar [https://workos.com/radar] ensures your product’s free trials go to actual users. Radar uses 80+ signals to distinguish malicious bots from real people, eliminating costly free-tier abuse. See why companies like Cursor, Perplexity, and OpenAI use Radar by visiting workos.com/radar [https://workos.com/radar]. * Lighthouse [https://www.lighthousehq.com/] is THE fastest immigration solution for the technology industry. They help you understand your options and navigate applications for expert visas like the O-1A and EB-1A. Explore which visa is right for you at https://www.lighthousehq.com/ref/Dwarkesh [https://www.lighthousehq.com/ref/Dwarkesh]. To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise [https://www.dwarkesh.com/advertise]. Timestamps (00:00:00) – We should reconcile with China (00:21:21) – BYD, Tesla, & Chinese EV industry (00:36:05) – Will China have a Japan-style financial crisis? (00:44:39) – Local debt situation is manageable (00:57:28) – If CCP is so competent, why isn’t China richer? (01:05:08) – How China keeps tech under control (01:33:45) – Does China win AI? (01:43:34) – Communication with China key for AI safety (02:10:08) – What foreigners get wrong about China (02:17:32) – China-US relationship future Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe [https://www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Ken Rogoff [https://rogoff.scholars.harvard.edu/] is the former chief economist of the IMF, a professor of Economics at Harvard, and author of the newly released Our Dollar, Your Problem [https://www.amazon.com/Our-Dollar-Your-Problem-Turbulent/dp/0300275315] and This Time is Different [https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640]. On this episode, Ken predicts that, within the next decade, the US will have a debt-induced inflation crisis, but not a Japan-type financial crisis (the latter is much worse, and can make a country poorer for generations). Ken also explains how China is trapped: in order to solve their current problems, they’ll keep leaning on financial repression and state-directed investment, which only makes their situation worse. We also discuss the erosion of dollar dominance, why there will be a rebalancing toward foreign equities, how AGI will impact the deficit and interest rate, and much more! Watch on YouTube [https://youtu.be/P2b4TjQa4gk]; listen on Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381?i=1000712621759] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XPKYjWWL3wculkx5z6WiA?si=220a633569594e9b]. Sponsors * WorkOS [https://workos.com/] gives your product all the features that enterprise customers need, without derailing your roadmap. Skip months of engineering effort and start selling to enterprises today at workos.com [https://workos.com/]. * Scale [https://scale.com/dwarkesh] is building the infrastructure for smarter, safer AI. In addition to their Data Foundry, they recently released Scale Evaluation, a tool that diagnoses model limitations. Learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh [https://scale.com/dwarkesh]. * Gemini Live API [https://aistudio.google.com/app/live] lets you have natural, real-time, interactions with Gemini. You can talk to it like you were talking to another person, stream video to show it your surroundings, and share screen to give it context. Try it now by clicking the “Stream” tab on ai.dev [https://ai.dev/]. To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise [https://www.dwarkesh.com/advertise]. Timestamps (00:00:00) – China is stagnating (00:25:46) – How the US broke Japan's economy (00:37:06) – America's inflation crisis is coming (01:02:20) – Will AGI solve the US deficit? (01:07:11) – Why interest rates will go up (01:10:55) – US equities will underperform (01:22:24) – The erosion of dollar dominance Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe [https://www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

On this episode, I chat with Victor Shih [https://gps.ucsd.edu/faculty-directory/victor-shih.html] about all things China. We discuss China’s massive local debt crisis, the CCP’s views on AI, what happens after Xi, and more. Victor Shih is an expert on the Chinese political system, as well as their banking and fiscal policies, and he has amassed more biographical data on the Chinese elite than anyone else in the world. He teaches at UC San Diego, where he also directs the 21st Century China Center. Watch on YouTube [https://youtu.be/b1TeeIG6Uaw]; listen on Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/xi-jinpings-paranoid-approach-to-agi-debt-crisis-politburo/id1516093381?i=1000710442426] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/episode/2HM7l7RDf8yG1KOtE3QY15?si=X_h0cP93S9yNbXvIpaAkrQ]. Sponsors * Scale [https://scale.com/dwarkesh] is building the infrastructure for smarter, safer AI. In addition to their Data Foundry, they just released Scale Evaluation, a tool that diagnoses model limitations. Learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh [https://scale.com/dwarkesh]. * WorkOS [https://workos.com/] is how top AI companies ship critical enterprise features without burning months of engineering time. If you need features like SSO, audit logs, or user provisioning, head to workos.com [https://workos.com/]. To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise [https://www.dwarkesh.com/advertise]. Timestamps (00:00:00) – Is China more decentralized than the US? (00:03:16) – How the Politburo Standing Committee makes decisions (00:21:07) – Xi’s right hand man in charge of AGI (00:35:37) – DeepSeek was trained to track CCP policy (00:45:35) – Local government debt crisis (00:50:00) – BYD, CATL, & financial repression (00:58:12) – How corruption leads to overbuilding (01:10:46) – Probability of Taiwan invasion (01:18:56) – Succession after Xi (01:25:10) – Future growth forecasts Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe [https://www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

New episode with my good friends Sholto Douglas [https://x.com/_sholtodouglas?lang=en] & Trenton Bricken [https://x.com/trentonbricken?lang=en]. Sholto focuses on scaling RL and Trenton researches mechanistic interpretability, both at Anthropic. We talk through what’s changed in the last year of AI research; the new RL regime and how far it can scale; how to trace a model’s thoughts; and how countries, workers, and students should prepare for AGI. See you next year for v3. Here’s last year’s episode [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTuuTTnjxMQ], btw. Enjoy! Watch on YouTube [https://youtu.be/64lXQP6cs5M]; listen on Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381?i=1000709488338] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/episode/3H46XEWBlUeTY1c1mHolqh?si=b645971b1af546fa]. ---------- SPONSORS * WorkOS [https://workos.com/] ensures that AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic don't have to spend engineering time building enterprise features like access controls or SSO. It’s not that they don't need these features; it's just that WorkOS gives them battle-tested APIs that they can use for auth, provisioning, and more. Start building today at workos.com [https://workos.com/]. * Scale [https://scale.com/dwarkesh] is building the infrastructure for safer, smarter AI. Scale’s Data Foundry gives major AI labs access to high-quality data to fuel post-training, while their public leaderboards help assess model capabilities. They also just released Scale Evaluation, a new tool that diagnoses model limitations. If you’re an AI researcher or engineer, learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh [https://scale.com/dwarkesh]. * Lighthouse [https://www.lighthousehq.com/ref/Dwarkesh] is THE fastest immigration solution for the technology industry. They specialize in expert visas like the O-1A and EB-1A, and they’ve already helped companies like Cursor, Notion, and Replit navigate U.S. immigration. Explore which visa is right for you at lighthousehq.com/ref/Dwarkesh [https://www.lighthousehq.com/ref/Dwarkesh]. To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise [https://www.dwarkesh.com/advertise]. ---------- TIMESTAMPS (00:00:00) – How far can RL scale? (00:16:27) – Is continual learning a key bottleneck? (00:31:59) – Model self-awareness (00:50:32) – Taste and slop (01:00:51) – How soon to fully autonomous agents? (01:15:17) – Neuralese (01:18:55) – Inference compute will bottleneck AGI (01:23:01) – DeepSeek algorithmic improvements (01:37:42) – Why are LLMs ‘baby AGI’ but not AlphaZero? (01:45:38) – Mech interp (01:56:15) – How countries should prepare for AGI (02:10:26) – Automating white collar work (02:15:35) – Advice for students Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe [https://www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Based on my essay about AI firms. [https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ai-firm] Huge thanks to Petr [https://www.petrsalaba.cz/] and his team for bringing this to life! Watch on YouTube [https://youtu.be/bJD1NpdMY5s]. Thanks to Google for sponsoring. We used their Veo 2 model to make this entire video—it generated everything from the photorealistic humans to the claymation octopuses. If you’re a Gemini Advanced user, you can try Veo 2 now in the Gemini app. Just select Veo 2 in the dropdown, and type your video idea in the prompt bar. Get started today by going to gemini.google.com [https://gemini.google.com/]. To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise [https://www.dwarkesh.com/advertise]. Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe [https://www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]