Blockade Rehearsal? Decoding China's Military Message
In this episode of Assumed Rationality, Bree Megivern unpacks China’s recent military exercises around Taiwan, analyzing them as both a possible rehearsal for a blockade and a strategic message to Taipei and Washington, DC. The episode touches on the historical relationship between China and Taiwan and the international community’s reactions to the military exercises.
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Want to learn more?
AP, “Taiwan’s President Says the Defense Budget Will Exceed 3% of GDP in Military Overhaul,” Associated Press News, March 20, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-us-defense-budget-b15c2dc87297627a2ac12ea344fe94b8 [https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-us-defense-budget-b15c2dc87297627a2ac12ea344fe94b8];
Chris Buckley, “China’s Military Exercises Around Taiwan Enter Second Day,” The New York Times, April 1, 2025, sec. World, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/01/world/asia/china-taiwan-military-drills.html [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/01/world/asia/china-taiwan-military-drills.html];
Department of Defense, “Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth Concludes Visit to Japan” (Department of Defense, March 30, 2025), https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4139267/secretary-of-defense-pete-hegseth-concludes-visit-to-japan/https%3A%2F%2Fwww.defense.gov%2FNews%2FReleases%2FRelease%2FArticle%2F4139267%2Fsecretary-of-defense-pete-hegseth-concludes-visit-to-japan%2F [https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4139267/secretary-of-defense-pete-hegseth-concludes-visit-to-japan/https%3A%2F%2Fwww.defense.gov%2FNews%2FReleases%2FRelease%2FArticle%2F4139267%2Fsecretary-of-defense-pete-hegseth-concludes-visit-to-japan%2F];
Dzirhan Mahadzir, “Chinese Military Wraps Intimidation Drills Off Taiwan,” USNI News (blog), April 2, 2025, https://news.usni.org/2025/04/02/chinese-military-wraps-intimidation-drills-off-taiwan [https://news.usni.org/2025/04/02/chinese-military-wraps-intimidation-drills-off-taiwan];
Huizhong Wu and Johnson Lai, “Chinese Military Conducts Large-Scale Drills around Taiwan,” AP News, April 1, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-military-drills-56a39e0044657c0a74482184895e6bed [https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-military-drills-56a39e0044657c0a74482184895e6bed];
Jack Burnham, “Signaling Displeasure With Washington, China Conducts Military Exercises Around Taiwan,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies, April 3, 2025, https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/04/03/signaling-displeasure-with-washington-china-conducts-military-exercises-around-taiwan/ [https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/04/03/signaling-displeasure-with-washington-china-conducts-military-exercises-around-taiwan/];
Joe Cash et al., “China Launches Military Drills around Taiwan, Calls Taiwan President a ‘Parasite,’” Reuters, April 1, 2025, sec. Asia Pacific, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinese-military-says-it-is-conducting-exercises-around-taiwan-2025-03-31/ [https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinese-military-says-it-is-conducting-exercises-around-taiwan-2025-03-31/];
Joe Cash et al., “China Concludes Two-Day War Games around Taiwan after Live Fire Drills,” Reuters, April 2, 2025, sec. Asia Pacific, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-drills-around-taiwan-continue-gives-them-code-name-strait-thunder-2025-04-02/ [https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-drills-around-taiwan-continue-gives-them-code-name-strait-thunder-2025-04-02/];
Matthew Sperzel et al., “China-Taiwan Weekly Update, April 4, 2025,” Institute for the Study of War - Press, April 4, 2025, http://dev-isw.bivings.com/ [http://dev-isw.bivings.com/];
The Associated Press, “Taiwan’s President Pushes to Increase Defense Budget amid Rising Threat from China,” NPR, March 21, 2025, sec. Asia, https://www.npr.org/2025/03/21/nx-s1-5336093/taiwain-military-budget-china-defense [https://www.npr.org/2025/03/21/nx-s1-5336093/taiwain-military-budget-china-defense].
Music:
"Super [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/] Power Cool Dude" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com [http://incompetech.com]) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/]
