Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

The next pope will be chosen through a ritualized process involving secret ballots, smoke signals, and a lock-in at the Sistine Chapel. Nate and Maria talk about how the papal conclave works, and what it has to teach us about group decision-making and the dynamics of secrecy. They also discuss the studio deal for the new movie Sinners, and share their own top negotiating tips. Plus, they play a game of Would You Rather. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap [https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/] from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin [https://www.natesilver.net/] from Nate Silver  ---------------------------------------- Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.  Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkin [http://apple.co/pushkin] Subscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plus [https://www.pushkin.fm/join-pushkin] See omnystudio.com/listener [https://omnystudio.com/listener] for privacy information.

This week, Nate and Maria talk about the Trump administration’s deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia without due process. The stakes are high–but immigration is a stronger issue for Trump in the court of public opinion than tariffs were. Picking a fight with Harvard may also be good politics for the administration. So: how should Democrats, and other anti-Trump forces, respond? Further Reading: What if There’s No Way to Stop Trump’s Approach to Power? [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/17/opinion/ross-douthat-interesting-times-jack-goldsmith.html] from Ross Douthat at the New York Times Nate’s Silver Bulletin post [https://www.natesilver.net/p/defending-democracy-is-easier-when] about the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap [https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/] from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin [https://www.natesilver.net/] from Nate Silver  ---------------------------------------- Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.  Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkin [http://apple.co/pushkin] Subscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plus [https://www.pushkin.fm/join-pushkin] See omnystudio.com/listener [https://omnystudio.com/listener] for privacy information.

Here’s a preview of a new audiobook, Global Tech Wars: China’s Race to Dominate [https://open.spotify.com/show/0j6iVkv3wIXkj1twQcZoq0?si=6c7af49885304b48&nd=1&dlsi=24f3cefee6864d3d]. For decades, China’s economic rise has been symbolized by its unstoppable force of low-cost manufacturing. Now, it’s the leading country in cutting-edge industries like artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, surveillance technology, and more. In Global Tech Wars, Financial Times’ veteran journalist James Kynge analyzes China’s rapid technological ascent and what it means for the future. If you like what you hear, find the full audiobook at Pushkin [https://www.pushkin.fm/audiobooks/global-tech-wars-chinas-race-to-dominate], Audible [https://www.audible.com/pd/Global-Tech-Wars-Audiobook/B0F1DQHBWH], Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/0j6iVkv3wIXkj1twQcZoq0?si=6c7af49885304b48], or wherever you get your audiobooks. See omnystudio.com/listener [https://omnystudio.com/listener] for privacy information.

This week, Nate and Maria discuss AI 2027, a new report from the AI Futures Project that lays out some pretty doom-y scenarios for our near-term AI future. They talk about how likely humans are to be misled by rogue AI, and whether current conflicts between the US and China will affect the way this all unfolds. Plus, Nate talks about the feedback he gave the AI 2027 writers after reading an early draft of their forecast, and reveals what he sees as the report’s central flaw. The AI Futures Project’s AI 2027 scenario: https://ai-2027.com/ [https://ai-2027.com/] For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap [https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/] from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin [https://www.natesilver.net/] from Nate Silver  ---------------------------------------- Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.  Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkin [http://apple.co/pushkin] Subscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plus [https://www.pushkin.fm/join-pushkin] See omnystudio.com/listener [https://omnystudio.com/listener] for privacy information.

Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s latest round of tariffs. What is the strategy here, if any? What should other decision-makers – like Elon Musk or the United States’ Congress – do to intervene? And how should the average American react? For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap [https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/] from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin [https://www.natesilver.net/] from Nate Silver  ---------------------------------------- Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.  Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkin [http://apple.co/pushkin] Subscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plus [https://www.pushkin.fm/join-pushkin] See omnystudio.com/listener [https://omnystudio.com/listener] for privacy information.