SE01E13 | Frozen Food, Shrinkflation, and the Real Cost of Supply Chain Complexity | Matt Kasten
Matt Kasten, VP of Operations at Diana's, pulls back the curtain on what it actually takes to run a frozen food brand — from protecting the cold chain across thousands of miles to navigating distributor margins that can swallow 40% of your revenue before a product ever hits a shelf. With a background spanning Unilever, PepsiCo, Hain Celestial, and Icelandic Provisions, Matt brings rare perspective on what separates supply chain strategy at a startup from the playbook at a multinational.
The conversation covers the real mechanics behind frozen food's $72 billion growth, the hidden economics of SKU proliferation, how temperature loggers are being used as both quality tools and freight claims evidence, and why AI-powered forecasting may be the biggest untapped opportunity for small CPG brands right now. If you work in food, FMCG, or supply chain — or you're building a consumer brand and wondering why the margins keep disappearing — this one's worth your time.
Key takeaways:
The US frozen food market hit $72B in 2023, driven by convenience, clean ingredients, and rapid gluten-free category growth
Distributor and retailer margins combined can reach 70-78% of shelf price, leaving startups very little room to operate
Shrinkflation is widespread — Diana's deliberately absorbs cost pressure rather than reduce product quality or ingredient standards
SKU rationalisation is a leadership decision, not just a supply chain one — without executive buy-in, redundant products quietly drain cash and cause food waste
Temperature loggers on high-value loads serve a dual purpose: proactive cold chain management and hard evidence for freight claims
Weekly order cycles give far better promotional visibility and demand signal accuracy than monthly ordering
AI forecasting has strong potential for CPG supply chains, but only when fed rich data — customer inventories, consumption data, order history, and distributor stock levels
FTE offset arguments and inventory reduction models are the most effective ways to justify supply chain tech investment to startup founders
Connect with Matt Kasten on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mattkasten
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